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Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard—many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time.Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal—our computers and our minds—Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Investment analysis. --- Investments --- Business cycles. --- Recessions. --- Forecasting.

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With reference to Developing countries.

Unemployment --- Financial crises --- Recessions --- Developing countries --- Commerce.

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Whether you are a global Fortune 500 organization or a small business Managing Customers Through Economic Cycles show you how to optimize your business's sales and marketing approaches specific to survive and thrive in each economic cycle and transition. ""The business case for continuing to invest in service and innovation can be compromised by an economic downturn. McKean clearly lays out the case for weathering the economic storm by achieving a careful balance of investment in the areas that truly matter - and continually using data to reinforce the idea that business can be more s

Customer relations. --- Consumer behavior. --- Business cycles. --- Recessions.

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Job creation --- Unemployment --- Recessions --- Government policy --- United States --- Economic conditions

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Job creation --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Recessions