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2009 (2)

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Book
ECCU Business Cycles : Impact of the U.S.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451916531 1462316425 1282842927 1451872186 9786612842924 1452737967 Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

With a fixed peg to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades, the tourism-dependent Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a close economic relationship with the U.S. This paper analyzes the impact of the United States on ECCU business cycles and identifies possible transmission channels. Using two different approaches (the common trends and common cycles approach of Vahid and Engle (1993) and the standard VAR analysis), it finds that the ECCU economies are very sensitive to both temporary and permanent movements in the U.S. economy and that such linkages have strengthened over time. There is, however, less clear-cut evidence on the transmission channels. United States monetary policy does not appear to be an important channel of influence, while tourism is important for only one ECCU country.


Book
Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1451916604 1462345689 9786612842993 1451872259 1282842994 145278034X Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exchange rates in the region. Second, a fundamentals-based equilibrium real exchange rate approach is used to explore sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in ECCU countries. And third, a macroeconomic balance approach is used to estimate equilibrium current account or current account "norms". The main finding of these analyses is that there is little evidence of overvaluation of the EC dollar. Furthermore, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the distinctive impact of tourism in determining real exchange rates through the wealth effect induced by tourism-driven increases in terms of trade and productivity.

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