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With a fixed peg to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades, the tourism-dependent Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a close economic relationship with the U.S. This paper analyzes the impact of the United States on ECCU business cycles and identifies possible transmission channels. Using two different approaches (the common trends and common cycles approach of Vahid and Engle (1993) and the standard VAR analysis), it finds that the ECCU economies are very sensitive to both temporary and permanent movements in the U.S. economy and that such linkages have strengthened over time. There is, however, less clear-cut evidence on the transmission channels. United States monetary policy does not appear to be an important channel of influence, while tourism is important for only one ECCU country.
Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Business cycles --- Economics --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Externalities --- Commodity Markets --- Remittances --- Economic growth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- International economics --- Vector autoregression --- Spillovers --- Commodity prices --- Econometric analysis --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Prices --- Balance of payments --- International finance --- United States
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This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exchange rates in the region. Second, a fundamentals-based equilibrium real exchange rate approach is used to explore sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in ECCU countries. And third, a macroeconomic balance approach is used to estimate equilibrium current account or current account "norms". The main finding of these analyses is that there is little evidence of overvaluation of the EC dollar. Furthermore, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the distinctive impact of tourism in determining real exchange rates through the wealth effect induced by tourism-driven increases in terms of trade and productivity.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Foreign exchange rates --- Monetary unions --- Common currencies --- Currency areas --- Currency unions --- Optimum currency areas --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Rates --- Currency question --- Money --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Sports --- Gambling --- Restaurants --- Recreation --- Tourism --- Currency --- International economics --- Hospitality, leisure & tourism industries --- Real exchange rates --- Real effective exchange rates --- Purchasing power parity --- Current account balance --- Balance of payments --- United States
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