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Recent theoretical and empirical work has cast doubt on the hypotheses of a linear Phillips curve and a symmetric quadratic loss function underlying traditional thinking on monetary policy. This paper analyzes the Barro-Gordon optimal monetary policy problem under alternative loss functions—including an asymmetric loss function corresponding to the “opportunistic approach” to disinflation—when the Phillips curve is convex. Numerical simulations are used to compare the implications of the alternative loss functions for equilibrium levels of inflation and unemployment. For parameter estimates relevant to the United States, the symmetric loss function dominates the asymmetric alternative.
Inflation --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary tightening --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- United States --- Income economics
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The paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy in a dynamic model of a small open economy with cash and credit goods production, where government consumption is financed by seignorage. It shows that the interrelationships between the growth rate of the monetary aggregate and the technological properties of the economy have an important bearing on the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, the optimal inflation rate, and the occurrence of explosive hyperinflations. In consequence, the paper concludes that monetary policy does matter in the long run.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Labor Economics: General --- Monetary economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Credit --- Consumption --- Labor --- Currencies --- Prices --- Economics --- Labor economics --- Money --- Income economics
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Although few would doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is much less agreement about moderate inflation’s effects. Using panel regressions and a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth. This relationship holds at all but the lowest inflation rates and is robust across various samples and specifications. The method of binary recursive trees identifies inflation as one the most important statistical determinants of growth. Finally, while there are short-run growth costs of disinflation, these are only relevant for the most severe disinflations, or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range.
Inflation --- Labor --- Public Finance --- Agribusiness --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Agricultural Markets and Marketing --- Cooperatives --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Disinflation --- Human capital --- Agroindustries --- Public expenditure review --- Prices --- Economic sectors --- Expenditure --- Agricultural industries --- Expenditures, Public --- United States --- Income economics
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This paper shows that deindustrialization is explained primarily by trends internal to the advanced economies. These include the combined effects on manufacturing employment of a relatively faster growth of productivity in manufacturing, the associated relative price changes, and shifts in the structure of demand between manufactures and services. North-South trade explains less than one fifth of deindustrialization in the advanced economies. Moreover, the contribution of North-South trade to deindustrialization has been mainly through its effects in stimulating labor productivity in Northern manufacturing. It has had little enduring effect on total manufacturing output in the advanced economies.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Production and Operations Management --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Manufacturing industries --- Labour --- income economics --- Manufacturing --- Productivity --- Personal income --- Labor productivity --- Economic sectors --- Production --- National accounts --- Economic theory --- Industrial productivity --- Income --- Japan --- Income economics
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Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that, while the NAIRU may have fallen slightly, it has not fallen by an amount sufficient to explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price shocks; in particular, the cost of imports has fallen sharply as the dollar has appreciated.
Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Unemployment --- Import prices --- Unemployment rate --- Labor costs --- Prices --- Imports --- United States --- Income economics
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This paper investigates the causes of the recent disinflation in Spain. A standard Phillips curve model is used to disentangle the contributions of three possible shocks: an adverse demand shock that raises unemployment, a positive supply shock resulting from relative price adjustments or structural improvements in the labor market, and a credibility shock that lowers inflationary expectations. The main element underlying Spain’s recent disinflation appears to be a fall in inflation expectations, thanks to the country’s commitment to participate in Economic and Monetary Union from the start, and policy actions geared to that end.
Inflation --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Disinflation --- Wage bargaining --- Output gap --- Real wages --- Prices --- Production --- Wages --- Economic theory --- Spain --- Income economics
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In recent years, many countries have successfully reduced their inflation rates to relatively low levels of 2 to 3 percent. The question then arises as to whether it would be desirable to move to even lower rates of inflation. The paper examines the benefits and costs of moving from low inflation to even lower inflation by drawing together recent work on this issue. Once a country has decided to move to an even lower rate of inflation, the question then becomes whether it would be better to achieve this objective through inflation targeting or price-level targeting. The paper critically reviews the arguments for both approaches.
Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Inflation targeting --- Wage adjustments --- Sticky prices --- Real interest rates --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Price stabilization --- Wages --- Interest rates --- United States --- Income economics
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This paper argues that the development of human capital in the public sector should be an important ingredient in any proposed set of “second-generation” reforms for Africa. In the post-colonial era the quality of governance has seriously declined, and the stock of human capital in the public sector has been eroded by a flight of human capital from many countries in response to compression of wages. The paper develops a simple theoretical framework to discuss these issues and the continent’s experience with foreign technical assistance in supplementing the low level of domestic human capital.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- International Migration --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Economywide Country Studies: Africa --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Labour --- income economics --- Civil service & public sector --- Human capital --- Public sector --- Wages --- Public sector wages --- Real wages --- Economic sectors --- Finance, Public --- Ghana --- Income economics
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This paper examines the role of exchange rate appreciation and the minimum wage in the relative decline of traditional sectors in Israel. It finds little evidence to indicate that real exchange rate appreciation is primarily responsible for this decline. Rather, the evidence indicates that slower productivity growth in traditional sectors has led to relatively larger increases in unit labor costs compared with high-tech sectors. Although the links are only indicative, the evidence also suggests that the minimum wage has played a role in the relatively faster growth in unit labor costs.
Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Minimum wages --- Wages --- Wage adjustments --- Labor productivity --- Labor costs --- Production --- Minimum wage --- Israel --- Income economics
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The implication of increasing dependency ratios for pay-as-you-go, defined-benefit pension programs are examined. Modifications aimed at smoothing contributions while maintaining benefits intact are analyzed for both open and closed economies.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Labor Economics: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Pensions --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary economics --- Pension spending --- Currencies --- Expenditure --- Money --- Labor economics --- Chile --- Income economics
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