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1997 (18)

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Book
Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization in Western Europe : Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462309623 1452752281 1281601357 9786613782045 1451896034 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper compares the experience with exchange-rate–based stabilization (ERBS) of four Western European countries with that of high-inflation developing countries. In general, the behavior of key macroeconomic variables—inflation, output, demand, the real exchange rate and the current account—in the four countries examined did not correspond to the pattern observed in developing countries, although some resemblance to this pattern could be found in Italy in 1987–92 and Greece in 1994–96. The experience with ERBS in Western Europe highlights the importance of incomes policy as an ingredient of a successful stabilization program and shows that the adoption of a looser anchor does not necessarily reduce the output cost of disinflation.


Book
Capital Flows to Brazil : The Endogeneity of Capital Controls
Authors: ---
ISBN: 146231662X 1452702810 1283556030 1451899238 9786613868480 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper creates an index of capital controls to analyze the determinants of capital flows to Brazil, accounting for the endogeneity of capital controls by considering a government that sets controls in response to capital flows. It finds that the government reacts strongly to capital flows by increasing controls on inflows during booms and relaxing them in moments of distress. The paper estimates a vector autoregression with capital flows, controls, and interest differentials. It shows that controls have been temporarily effective in altering levels and composition of capital flows but have had no sustained effects in the long run.


Book
Exchange Rate Volatility, Pricing to Market and Trade Smoothing
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462332757 1452715912 1283570173 9786613882622 1451900112 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper investigates the consequences of exchange rate volatility on the variability of export prices and quantities in the presence of market segmentation and pricing to market. Firms stabilize destination prices through systematic price discrimination, limiting the degree of exchange rate pass-through. Consequently, the variability of exchange rates is not fully translated into prices and quantities at the point of destination. Empirical estimates using aggregate price data for the G-7 industrial countries show incomplete pass-through in variances, with considerable variation among these countries. U.S. industry specific data also indicate incomplete pass-through in most cases, with considerable variation across industries.


Book
International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462396275 1452779457 1282109715 9786613802606 1451903790 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants are presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries. Finally, structural vector autoregression models are used to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.


Book
External Stability Under Alternative Nominal Exchange Rate Anchors : An Application to the GCC Countries
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462366244 1451991541 1283559447 9786613871893 1451890656 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Import and export stability is examined under two alternative nominal exchange rate anchors, the U.S. dollar and the SDR. Stability under the two pegs depends critically on import and export elasticity with respect to exchange rates. The implications of import and export elasticity for an optimal currency basket are also explored. The elasticity estimates for the GCC countries suggest that the SDR peg may not outperform the dollar peg in improving external stability. Nevertheless, switching to some other nominal exchange rate anchor may improve external stability, a possibility that remains to be explored.


Book
Current Account Imbalances in AsEAN Countries : Are they a Problem?
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ISBN: 1462359116 1452776512 1281600806 1451894090 9786613781499 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Applying a consumption-smoothing model to five ASEAN countries reveals that excessive private consumption has not tended to characterize their widening external imbalances in recent years, except to a small degree in Indonesia and Malaysia. Beyond consumption smoothing, however, a number of factors influence the desirability of running large external deficits, including the level and composition of external liabilities, the flexibility of macroeconomic policies, and the health of banking systems. Even when the current account deficit appears sustainable, there is a case to reduce them in order to lower the risks arising from such factors.


Book
The IMF Monetary Model At Forty
Author:
ISBN: 1462342965 145273514X 1281394009 1451893930 9786613780058 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

A model reflecting the monetary approach to the balance of payments was developed in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the 1950s. Its purpose was to integrate monetary, income, and balance of payments analysis, and it became the basis of the conditionality applied to IMF credits. Extremely simple, with primary focus on the balance of payments effects of credit creation by the banking system, the model has retained its usefulness for policy purposes over time, as it was adapted to changes in member countries’ priorities and in the international monetary system, in particular the disappearance of the par value system.


Book
Shock Versus Gradualism in Models of Rational Expectations : The Case of Trade Liberalization
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462393292 1452729034 1282107623 9786613800978 1451899793 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper provides a new argument for “shock” versus “gradualism” in the implementation of trade policies. In the simple context of a small open economy with rational expectations, we consider the comparative welfare effects of eliminating an import tariff either immediately as an unanticipated shock, or gradually over a preannounced length of time. The gradualist policy introduces a distortion in consumption-accumulation decisions and generates welfare costs. And if the gradual change is extended over “too long” a period, these costs may exceed the long-run benefits of liberalization.


Book
Fiscal Policy and the Predictability of Exchange Rate Collapse
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ISBN: 1462380166 1452731047 1282110276 1451900678 9786613803160 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

It is well known that the long-run viability of a fixed exchange rate regime imposes constraints on monetary policy. This paper shows that, in a model with forward-looking agents, short-run viability imposes a fiscal constraint. When policy change, which destroys long-run viability, also violates the fiscal constraint, collapse is instantaneous. Delayed predictable collapse requires satisfaction of the fiscal constraint.


Book
The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Job Creation and Destruction
Author:
ISBN: 1462350011 1452749264 1283559250 9786613871701 1451894589 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper presents theory and evidence on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on job creation and job destruction. First, it solves a dynamic matching model and it shows how interest rate changes result in an asymmetric response of job creation and destruction. Second, it looks at how changes in the federal fund rate affect gross job flows in the U.S. manufacturing industry, and it finds evidence of asymmetry. Tight policy increases job destruction and reduces net employment changes. Conversely, easy policy appears ineffective in stimulating job creation.

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