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The Eurogroup
Authors: ---
ISBN: 0719074037 1847792294 1781701555 9781781701553 9781847792297 9780719074035 Year: 2006 Publisher: Manchester Manchester University Press

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Abstract

This book is the first study on the work of the Eurogroup - monthly informal meetings between euro area finance ministers, the Commission and the European Central Bank. Puetter convincingly demonstrates how this small, secretive circle of senior decision-makers shapes European economic governance through a routinised informal policy dialogue. Although the role of the Eurogroup has been contested since before the group's creation, its actual operation has never been subject to systematic evaluation. This book opens the doors of the meeting room and shows how an understanding of the interplay of


Book
Volatilidad en los mercados emergentes
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 151351346X 1513519115 9781513519111 1513534459 9781513534459 1513523325 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

Las políticas monetarias acomodaticias de las economías avanzadas han estimulado la entrada de capitales en los mercados emergentes desde la crisis financiera internacional. En un episodio que comenzó en mayo de 2013, cuando la Reserva Federal mencionó públicamente los planes de repliegue gradual de las políticas monetarias no convencionales, esos mercados emergentes experimentaron turbulencia financiera, en un momento en que su actividad económica interna se había enfriado. Este estudio examina sus experiencias y políticas de respuesta, y extrae lecciones generales. En los mercados emergentes, la solidez de los fundamentos macroeconómicos es importante, y la adopción sin dilación de medidas decisivas para fortalecer las políticas macroeconómicas y reducir las vulnerabilidades ayuda a suavizar las reacciones de los mercados a los shocks externos. En las economías avanzadas, la comunicación clara y eficaz sobre el retiro de la política monetaria no convencional puede contribuir a alejar el riesgo de volatilidad excesiva en los mercados, lo cual efectivamente ocurrió. Y en la comunidad internacional, la promoción de la cooperación internacional, que debe incluir una sólida red mundial de seguridad financiera, ofrece a los mercados emergentes una protección eficaz ante la volatilidad excesiva.


Book
The exchange rate pass-through to import and export prices
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1475589808 1475510233 1475552408 1475580614 9781475589801 9781475510232 9781475580617 9781475552409 Year: 2012 Volume: WP/12/226 Publisher: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund, Institute for Capacity Development

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Abstract

Using both regression- and VAR-based estimates, the paper finds that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices for a large number of countries is incomplete and larger than the pass-through to export prices. Previous studies have reported similar results, which give rise to the puzzle that while local currency pricing is needed to account for incomplete import price pass-through, it would not imply a lower export price pass-through. Recent explanations of this puzzle have emphasized markup adjustment in response to exchange rate changes. This paper suggests an alternative explanation based on the presence of both producer and local currency pricing. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper shows that a mix of producer and local currency pricing can explain the pass-through evidence even with a constant markup. The model can also explain the observed exchange rate and inflation variability as well as the fact that the regression and VAR estimates tend to be similar.


Book
Game of Anchors.
Author:
ISBN: 1513559192 1513527959 1498342728 9781513527956 1513506803 Year: 2015 Publisher: International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

Belarus experienced a sequence of currency crises during 2009-2014. Our empirical results, based on a structural econometric model, suggest that the activist wage policy and extensive state program lending (SPL) conflicted with the tightly managed exchange rate regime and suppressed monetary policy transmission. This created conditions for the unusually frequent crises. At the current juncture, refocusing monetary policy from exchange rate to inflation would help to avoid disorderly external adjustments. The government should abandon wage targets and phase out SPL to remove the underlying source of the imbalances and ensure lasting stabilization.


Book
Currency wars or efficient spillovers?
Author:
ISBN: 1475579675 9781475579673 1475579640 Year: 2017 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

In an interconnected world, national economic policies regularly lead to large international spillover effects, which frequently trigger calls for international policy cooperation. However, the premise of successful cooperation is that there is a Pareto inefficiency, i.e. if there is scope to make some nations better off without hurting others. This paper presents a first welfare theorem for open economies that defines an efficient benchmark and spells out the conditions that need to be violated to generate inefficiency and scope for cooperation. These are: (i) policymakers act competitively in the international market, (ii) policymakers have sufficient external policy instruments and (iii) international markets are free of imperfections. Our theorem holds even if each economy suffers from a wide range of domestic market imperfections and targeting problems. We provide examples of current account intervention, monetary policy, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy/capital controls, and exchange rate management and show that the resulting spillovers are Pareto efficient, as long as the three conditions are satisfied. Furthermore, we develop general guidelines for how policy cooperation can improve welfare when the conditions are violated.


Book
Assessing the fragility of global trade
Authors: --- ---
ISSN: 10185941 ISBN: 1475584156 9781475584158 1475578512 9781475578515 1475584113 Year: 2017 Publisher: [Washington, District of Columbia]

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Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.


Book
Risk Taking and Interest Rates.
Author:
ISBN: 1475577842 9781475577846 1475577826 Year: 2017 Publisher: International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

We study how low interest rates in the United States affect risk taking in the market of crossborder leveraged corporate loans. To the extent that actions of the Federal Reserve affect U.S. interest rates, our analysis provides evidence of a cross-border spillover effect of monetary policy. We find that before the crisis, lenders made ex-ante riskier loans to non- U.S. borrowers in response to a decline in short-term U.S. interest rates, and, after it, in response to a decline in longer-term U.S. interest rates. Economic uncertainty and risk appetite appear to play a limited role in explaining ex-ante credit risk. Our results highlight the potential policy challenges faced by central banks in affecting credit risk cycles in their own jurisdictions.


Book
New Energy Sources for Jordan : Macroeconomic Impact and Policy Considerations
Authors: ---
ISBN: 151356725X 1513509497 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Jordan’s initiatives to reduce its energy dependency could have substantial macroeconomic implications, but will crucially depend on the level of international oil prices in the next decade. Significant uncertainties remain regarding the feasibility of the initiatives and their potential fiscal costs, including from contingent liabilities, could be very large. Given the lead time required for such major investments, work should start now on: (i) conducting comprehensive cost-benefits analysis of these projects; (ii) addressing the challenges arising from the taxation of natural resources; and (iii) designing a fiscal framework to anchor fiscal policies if revenue from these energy projects materializes.


Book
Paths to eurobonds
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1475535295 1475505205 1475567448 1475587775 9781475535297 9781475567441 9781475587777 9781475505207 Year: 2012 Volume: WP/12/172 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

This paper discusses proposals for common euro area sovereign securities. Such instruments can potentially serve two functions: in the short-term, stabilize financial markets and banks and, in the medium-term, help improve the euro area economic governance framework through enhanced fiscal discipline and risk-sharing. Many questions remain on whether financial instruments can ever accomplish such goals without bold institutional and political decisions, and, whether, in the absence of such decisions, they can create new distortions. The proposals discussed are also not necessarily competing substitutes; rather, they can be complements to be sequenced along alternative paths that possibly culminate in a fully-fledged Eurobond. The specific path chosen by policymakers should allow for learning and secure the necessary evolution of institutional infrastructures and political safeguards.


Book
Fiscal sustainability
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1484397169 1484351495 1484301617 1484381998 9781484301616 9781484381991 9781484397169 9781484351499 Year: 2013 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.

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