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Machine learning is a relatively new field, without a unanimous definition. In many ways, actuaries have been machine learners. In both pricing and reserving, but also more recently in capital modelling, actuaries have combined statistical methodology with a deep understanding of the problem at hand and how any solution may affect the company and its customers. One aspect that has, perhaps, not been so well developed among actuaries is validation. Discussions among actuaries’ “preferred methods” were often without solid scientific arguments, including validation of the case at hand. Through this collection, we aim to promote a good practice of machine learning in insurance, considering the following three key issues: a) who is the client, or sponsor, or otherwise interested real-life target of the study? b) The reason for working with a particular data set and a clarification of the available extra knowledge, that we also call prior knowledge, besides the data set alone. c) A mathematical statistical argument for the validation procedure.

deposit insurance --- implied volatility --- static arbitrage --- parameterization --- machine learning --- calibration --- dichotomous response --- predictive model --- tree boosting --- GLM --- validation --- generalised linear modelling --- zero-inflated poisson model --- telematics --- benchmark --- cross-validation --- prediction --- stock return volatility --- long-term forecasts --- overlapping returns --- autocorrelation --- chain ladder --- Bornhuetter–Ferguson --- maximum likelihood --- exponential families --- canonical parameters --- prior knowledge --- accelerated failure time model --- chain-ladder method --- local linear kernel estimation --- non-life reserving --- operational time --- zero-inflation --- overdispersion --- automobile insurance --- risk classification --- risk selection --- least-squares monte carlo method --- proxy modeling --- life insurance --- Solvency II --- claims prediction --- export credit insurance --- semiparametric modeling --- VaR estimation --- analyzing financial data --- n/a --- Bornhuetter-Ferguson

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The analysis and modeling of time series is of the utmost importance in various fields of application. This Special Issue is a collection of articles on a wide range of topics, covering stochastic models for time series as well as methods for their analysis, univariate and multivariate time series, real-valued and discrete-valued time series, applications of time series methods to forecasting and statistical process control, and software implementations of methods and models for time series. The proposed approaches and concepts are thoroughly discussed and illustrated with several real-world data examples.

Humanities --- time series --- anomaly detection --- unsupervised learning --- kernel density estimation --- missing data --- multivariate time series --- nonstationary --- spectral matrix --- local field potential --- electric power --- forecasting accuracy --- machine learning --- extended binomial distribution --- INAR --- thinning operator --- time series of counts --- unemployment rate --- SARIMA --- SETAR --- Holt–Winters --- ETS --- neural network autoregression --- Romania --- integer-valued time series --- bivariate Poisson INGARCH model --- outliers --- robust estimation --- minimum density power divergence estimator --- CUSUM control chart --- INAR-type time series --- statistical process monitoring --- random survival rate --- zero-inflation --- cointegration --- subspace algorithms --- VARMA models --- seasonality --- finance --- volatility fluctuation --- Student’s t-process --- entropy based particle filter --- relative entropy --- count data --- time series analysis --- Julia programming language --- ordinal patterns --- long-range dependence --- multivariate data analysis --- limit theorems --- integer-valued moving average model --- counting series --- dispersion test --- Bell distribution --- count time series --- estimation --- overdispersion --- multivariate count data --- INGACRCH --- state-space model --- bank failures --- transactions --- periodic autoregression --- integer-valued threshold models --- parameter estimation --- models

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The analysis and modeling of time series is of the utmost importance in various fields of application. This Special Issue is a collection of articles on a wide range of topics, covering stochastic models for time series as well as methods for their analysis, univariate and multivariate time series, real-valued and discrete-valued time series, applications of time series methods to forecasting and statistical process control, and software implementations of methods and models for time series. The proposed approaches and concepts are thoroughly discussed and illustrated with several real-world data examples.

Humanities --- time series --- anomaly detection --- unsupervised learning --- kernel density estimation --- missing data --- multivariate time series --- nonstationary --- spectral matrix --- local field potential --- electric power --- forecasting accuracy --- machine learning --- extended binomial distribution --- INAR --- thinning operator --- time series of counts --- unemployment rate --- SARIMA --- SETAR --- Holt–Winters --- ETS --- neural network autoregression --- Romania --- integer-valued time series --- bivariate Poisson INGARCH model --- outliers --- robust estimation --- minimum density power divergence estimator --- CUSUM control chart --- INAR-type time series --- statistical process monitoring --- random survival rate --- zero-inflation --- cointegration --- subspace algorithms --- VARMA models --- seasonality --- finance --- volatility fluctuation --- Student’s t-process --- entropy based particle filter --- relative entropy --- count data --- time series analysis --- Julia programming language --- ordinal patterns --- long-range dependence --- multivariate data analysis --- limit theorems --- integer-valued moving average model --- counting series --- dispersion test --- Bell distribution --- count time series --- estimation --- overdispersion --- multivariate count data --- INGACRCH --- state-space model --- bank failures --- transactions --- periodic autoregression --- integer-valued threshold models --- parameter estimation --- models --- time series --- anomaly detection --- unsupervised learning --- kernel density estimation --- missing data --- multivariate time series --- nonstationary --- spectral matrix --- local field potential --- electric power --- forecasting accuracy --- machine learning --- extended binomial distribution --- INAR --- thinning operator --- time series of counts --- unemployment rate --- SARIMA --- SETAR --- Holt–Winters --- ETS --- neural network autoregression --- Romania --- integer-valued time series --- bivariate Poisson INGARCH model --- outliers --- robust estimation --- minimum density power divergence estimator --- CUSUM control chart --- INAR-type time series --- statistical process monitoring --- random survival rate --- zero-inflation --- cointegration --- subspace algorithms --- VARMA models --- seasonality --- finance --- volatility fluctuation --- Student’s t-process --- entropy based particle filter --- relative entropy --- count data --- time series analysis --- Julia programming language --- ordinal patterns --- long-range dependence --- multivariate data analysis --- limit theorems --- integer-valued moving average model --- counting series --- dispersion test --- Bell distribution --- count time series --- estimation --- overdispersion --- multivariate count data --- INGACRCH --- state-space model --- bank failures --- transactions --- periodic autoregression --- integer-valued threshold models --- parameter estimation --- models