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Book
Historical Dynamics
Author:
ISBN: 1400889316 9781400889310 9780691116693 Year: 2018 Publisher: Princeton, NJ

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Abstract

Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

Keywords

Historiometry. --- History --- Historical models --- Historiometry --- Historiometrics --- Biography --- Psychohistory --- Mathematical models. --- Methodology --- Psychological aspects --- Mathematical models --- Statistical methods --- Demography --- Asia Minor. --- Black Death. --- English Revolution. --- Europe. --- France. --- Russia. --- agrarian polities. --- asabiya. --- autocatalytic model. --- boom–bust dynamics. --- boundless growth. --- class structure. --- cliodynamics. --- collective solidarity. --- collectivism. --- commoners. --- conflict legitimacy dynamics. --- cultural regions. --- demographic-fiscal model. --- demographic-structural theory. --- dynamical processes. --- elites. --- empires. --- endogenous systems. --- equilibrium. --- ethnic assimilation. --- ethnic identity. --- ethnies. --- ethnogenesis. --- ethnokinetic model. --- ethnokinetics. --- frontier index. --- frontiers. --- geopolitics. --- group dynamics. --- group solidarity. --- hierarchical modeling. --- historical dynamics. --- historical sociology. --- imperial boundaries. --- individualism. --- internal warfare. --- linguistic assimilation. --- marchland position. --- mathematical modeling. --- mathematical models. --- mathematical theory. --- metaethnic fault lines. --- metaethnic frontier theory. --- metaethnic frontiers. --- metaethnie. --- metastable dynamics. --- noninteractive model. --- nonlinear dynamics. --- political cycles. --- political instability. --- polity dynamics. --- population density. --- population dynamics. --- population numbers. --- population oscillations. --- primary data. --- process order. --- quantitative theories. --- religious conversion. --- secondary data. --- secular cycles. --- secular oscillations. --- social capital. --- socioeconomic dynamics. --- sociopolitical stability. --- state breakdown. --- sustained oscillations. --- territorial dynamics. --- threshold model. --- vulnerability.

Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice
Author:
ISBN: 0691022836 Year: 1988 Publisher: Princeton, NJ Princeton Univ. Pr.

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Abstract

This innovative study blends sophisticated statistical analyses, campaign anecdotes, and penetrating political insight to produce a fascinating exploration of one of America's most controversial political institutions--the process by which our major parties nominate candidates for the presidency. Larry Bartels focuses on the nature and impact of "momentum" in the contemporary nominating system. He describes the complex interconnections among primary election results, expectations, and subsequent primary results that have made it possible for candidates like Jimmy Carter, George Bush, and Gary Hart to emerge from relative obscurity into political prominence in recent nominating campaigns. In the course of his analysis, he addresses questions central to any understanding--or evaluation--of the modern nominating process. How do fundamental political predispositions influence the behavior of primary voters? How quickly does the public learn about new candidates? Under what circumstances will primary success itself generate subsequent primary success? And what are the psychological processes underlying this dynamic tendency? Professor Bartels examines the likely consequences of some proposed alternatives to the current nominating process, including a regional primary system and a one-day national primary. Thus the work will be of interest to political activists, would-be reformers, and interested observers of the American political scene, as well as to students of public opinion, voting behavior, the news media, campaigns, and electoral institutions.

Keywords

Presidents --- United States --- Nomination --- Primaries --- Bush, George, 1924-2018 --- Carter, Jimmy --- Ford, Gerald Rudolph --- Jackson, Jesse Louis --- Mondale, Walter Frederick --- Reagan, Ronald --- Wallace, George Corley --- Kandidatenaufstellung --- Präsidentenwahl --- Vorwahl --- USA --- Afghanistan. --- Bush, George. --- Gallup Poll. --- Glenn, John. --- Houston Chronicle. --- Iran hostage crisis. --- Janaskie, Paul. --- Johnston, Richard. --- Kemp, Jack. --- Kentucky Derby. --- Lichtenstein, Sarah. --- Ohio primary. --- Opus (penguin). --- Smith, Carolyn. --- Solid South. --- Super Tuesday. --- Time magazine. --- Vietnam war. --- Watergate. --- ambiguity. --- approval voting. --- bandwagon. --- brokered convention. --- campaign effects. --- congressional caucuses. --- contagion. --- conventions. --- deathwatch coverage. --- defense spending. --- delegates. --- endogeneity of preferences. --- expectations. --- feeling thermometer. --- foreign policy. --- government services. --- horse race. --- information. --- labor unions. --- liberalism scores. --- media use. --- momentum. --- name recognition. --- national primary. --- negative momentum. --- nuclear power. --- paradox of voting. --- political activation. --- projection. --- reform. --- regional primaries. --- threshold model. --- unemployment. --- President --- Präsident --- President of the United States of America --- Präsident der Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika --- President of the United States --- American Presidents --- ABŞ --- ABSh --- Ameerika Ühendriigid --- America (Republic) --- Amerika Birlăshmish Shtatlary --- Amerika Birlăşmi Ştatları --- Amerika Birlăşmiş Ştatları --- Amerika ka Kelenyalen Jamanaw --- Amerika Qūrama Shtattary --- Amerika Qŭshma Shtatlari --- Amerika Qushma Shtattary --- Amerika (Republic) --- Amerikai Egyesült Államok --- Amerikanʹ Veĭtʹsėndi︠a︡vks Shtattnė --- Amerikări Pĕrleshu̇llĕ Shtatsem --- Amerikas Forenede Stater --- Amerikayi Miatsʻyal Nahangner --- Ameriketako Estatu Batuak --- Amirika Carékat --- AQSh --- Ar. ha-B. --- Arhab --- Artsot ha-Berit --- Artzois Ha'bris --- Bí-kok --- Ē.P.A. --- EE.UU. --- Egyesült Államok --- ĒPA --- Estados Unidos --- Estados Unidos da América do Norte --- Estados Unidos de América --- Estaos Xuníos --- Estaos Xuníos d'América --- Estatos Unitos --- Estatos Unitos d'America --- Estats Units d'Amèrica --- Ètats-Unis d'Amèrica --- États-Unis d'Amérique --- Fareyniḳṭe Shṭaṭn --- Feriene Steaten --- Feriene Steaten fan Amearika --- Forente stater --- FS --- Hēnomenai Politeiai Amerikēs --- Hēnōmenes Politeies tēs Amerikēs --- Hiwsisayin Amerikayi Miatsʻeal Tērutʻiwnkʻ --- Istadus Unidus --- Jungtinės Amerikos valstybės --- Mei guo --- Mei-kuo --- Meiguo --- Mî-koet --- Miatsʻyal Nahangner --- Miguk --- Na Stàitean Aonaichte --- NSA --- S.U.A. --- SAD --- Saharat ʻAmērikā --- SASht --- Severo-Amerikanskie Shtaty --- Severo-Amerikanskie Soedinennye Shtaty --- Si︠e︡vero-Amerikanskīe Soedinennye Shtaty --- Sjedinjene Američke Države --- Soedinennye Shtaty Ameriki --- Soedinennye Shtaty Severnoĭ Ameriki --- Soedinennye Shtaty Si︠e︡vernoĭ Ameriki --- Spojené obce severoamerické --- Spojené staty americké --- SShA --- Stadoù-Unanet Amerika --- Stáit Aontaithe Mheiriceá --- Stany Zjednoczone --- Stati Uniti --- Stati Uniti d'America --- Stâts Unîts --- Stâts Unîts di Americhe --- Steatyn Unnaneysit --- Steatyn Unnaneysit America --- SUA (Stati Uniti d'America) --- Sŭedineni amerikanski shtati --- Sŭedinenite shtati --- Tetã peteĩ reko Amérikagua --- U.S. --- U.S.A. --- United States of America --- Unol Daleithiau --- Unol Daleithiau America --- Unuiĝintaj Ŝtatoj de Ameriko --- US --- Usono --- Vaeinigte Staatn --- Vaeinigte Staatn vo Amerika --- Vereinigte Staaten --- Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika --- Verenigde State van Amerika --- Verenigde Staten --- VS --- VSA --- Wááshindoon Bikéyah Ałhidadiidzooígíí --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah al-Amirīkīyah --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah al-Amrīkīyah --- Yhdysvallat --- Yunaeted Stet --- Yunaeted Stet blong Amerika --- ZDA --- Združene države Amerike --- Zʹi︠e︡dnani Derz︠h︡avy Ameryky --- Zjadnośone staty Ameriki --- Zluchanyi︠a︡ Shtaty Ameryki --- Zlucheni Derz︠h︡avy --- ZSA --- Η.Π.Α. --- Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες της Αμερικής --- Америка (Republic) --- Американь Вейтьсэндявкс Штаттнэ --- Америкӑри Пӗрлешӳллӗ Штатсем --- САЩ --- Съединените щати --- Злучаныя Штаты Амерыкі --- ولايات المتحدة --- ولايات المتّحدة الأمريكيّة --- ولايات المتحدة الامريكية --- 미국 --- États-Unis --- É.-U. --- ÉU --- Präsident --- Präsident der Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika --- Primary --- Vorwahlen --- Wahl --- Präsidentschaftswahl --- Staatspräsidentenwahl --- Nominierung --- Nordamerika --- Amerika --- Etats Unis --- Etats-Unis --- Estados Unidos de America --- EEUU --- Vereinigte Staaten von Nordamerika --- Soedinennye Štaty Ameriki --- SŠA --- Stany Zjednoczone Ameryki Północnej --- Hēnōmenai Politeiai tēs Boreiu Amerikēs --- Hēnōmenes Politeies tēs Amerikēs --- HēPA --- Ēnōmenes Politeies tēs Amerikēs --- ĒPA --- Etats-Unis d'Amérique --- Amerikaner --- Konföderierte Staaten von Amerika

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