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This paper analyses the evolution of fiscal and monetary variables in Ghana, from the discovery of oil in 2007 through to 2014. It documents the deterioration of fiscal and monetary discipline over this period, which resulted in a rebound of debt, a deterioration of the external balance, and a decrease in public investment. The paper goes on to analyse the potential causes of this deterioration, including the political economy context, and the fiscal and monetary institutional framework. The suggested causes include the politics of Ghana's dominant two-party system. Finally, the paper discusses what Ghana could have done differently to avoid the various damaging effects associated with the oil discovery. It does not aim to provide specific fiscal policy recommendations for Ghana, but rather to give an empirical account of Ghana's experience that may be useful for other countries that discover oil.
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Demography --- -Macroeconomic policy --- -Economic aspects --- -Demography --- -Economic aspects -
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Monetary policy --- -Macroeconomic policy --- -European Union countries --- -Economic conditions
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"The authors use a sample of 147 countries to investigate the link between democracy and reforms. Democracy may be conducive to reforms, because politicians have the incentive to embrace growth-enhancing reforms to win elections. By contrast, authoritarian regimes do not have to worry as much about public opinion and may undertake reforms that are painful in the short run but bring future prosperity. This paper tests these hypotheses, using data on micro-economic reforms from the World Bank's Doing Business database. These data do not suffer the endogeneity issues associated with other datasets on changes in economic institutions. The results provide robust support for the claim that democracy is good for growth-enhancing reforms. "--World Bank web site.
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Financial crises --- Unemployment --- -Economic policy --- Macroeconomic policy --- Effect of inflation on
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The UK construction planning system is overly stringent and the localized and discretionary system of decision-making makes it highly unpredictable. It hinders new construction (both residential and commercial) and infrastructure projects, restricting labor mobility (as workers stay trapped in suboptimal jobs due to unaffordable housing in areas with better prospects). It also raises investment costs for businesses, who often endure long and uncertain wait times or are forced to relocate to suboptimal locations. International and domestic experience suggests that a concerted overhaul of the system is needed, focusing on systemic reforms that reduce discretionary decision-making in granting permissions. While this is politically difficult, tangible progress is possible around a few key areas: (i) broader geographic and rules-based decision-making for business and large residential developments to reduce uncertainty for investors; (ii) digitalized and standardized plans at the local level which are, additionally, binding for designated growth areas; (iii) careful review of scope to release Green Belt land of little environmental or amenity value near stations with easy access to major cities; and (iv) targeted incentives (to overcome new builds resistance) and resources to local authorities (including skilled staff to facilitate compliance with new environmental requirements).
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This note summarizes the main findings and action plan of the IMF Technical Assistance (TA) Scoping Mission to support the Colombian Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule (CARF) in building capacity on macroeconomic forecasting and analysis. The TA was requested by the CARF to develop a macroeconomic projections tool, integrate its current satellite fiscal forecasting models, institutionalize the use of the tool, and develop a methodology to independently assess macro-fiscal forecasts produced by the Ministry of Finance.
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On the occasion of the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings’ return to the African continent after 50 years—specifically to Marrakech, Morocco—this Special Issue on Africa discusses economic developments for the entire continent. After four years of crises and at the close of another difficult year, recent events, including the devastating earthquake in Morocco, severe floods in Libya, and the impact of Cyclone Freddy in Malawi, have underscored the continent’s ongoing vulnerability to natural disasters and the need to build resilience. In the near term, there are tentative signs that the outlook in many countries in Africa is improving. Inflation is generally easing, economic activity is starting to pick up, and fiscal imbalances are gradually moderating. However, significant challenges remain, and it is too early to celebrate. For too many countries, inflation is still too high, debt vulnerabilities remain elevated, and medium-term growth rates are too low. Recent episodes of political instability also underscore the fragility of conflict-affected states. Against this background, Africa’s policymakers should prioritize efforts to boost resilience by ensuring macroeconomic stability and accel-erating structural reforms to foster stronger, more inclusive growth. The international community should maintain and enhance a cooperative approach to the provision of global public goods. In the case of Africa, it is essential to support the region’s most vulnerable climate- and conflict-affected states.
Climate --- Deflation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic development --- Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth --- Economic forecasting --- Economic growth --- Environment --- Global Warming --- Inflation --- International Economics --- International organization --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Macroeconomics --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Natural Disasters --- Natural disasters --- Price Level --- Prices --- Regional economics
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