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The surge in energy and food prices, which was amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has prompted a flurry of policy responses by countries during 2022. The aim of these policy responses was to mitigate social and economic impact of higher prices. In this paper we document announcements of policy measures based on the Database of Energy and Food Price Actions (DEFPA), which was developed based on two rounds of survey responses of IMF country teams conducted in March/April and June/July of 2022. The paper also provides discussion on policy trade-offs when considering appropriate policy responses both for countries with strong and weak social safety nets. Key policy message is that providing targeted support to households in the form of cash transfers is the most cost-effective way of alleviating the burden on vulnerable households and have to be preferred over broad-based mechanisms that prevent international prices to pass through to domestic consumers.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Firm --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Energy prices --- Food prices --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- France
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The surge in energy and food prices, which was amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has prompted a flurry of policy responses by countries during 2022. The aim of these policy responses was to mitigate social and economic impact of higher prices. In this paper we document announcements of policy measures based on the Database of Energy and Food Price Actions (DEFPA), which was developed based on two rounds of survey responses of IMF country teams conducted in March/April and June/July of 2022. The paper also provides discussion on policy trade-offs when considering appropriate policy responses both for countries with strong and weak social safety nets. Key policy message is that providing targeted support to households in the form of cash transfers is the most cost-effective way of alleviating the burden on vulnerable households and have to be preferred over broad-based mechanisms that prevent international prices to pass through to domestic consumers.
France --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Firm --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Energy prices --- Food prices --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics
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Fund member countries that adopt market-friendly policies often encounter a credibility problem—market-friendly policies are not effective in stimulating private investment as long as there remains a significant risk of policy reversal. The root of this risk lies in the discretionary policy-making authority of governments. Committing to a program with the Fund, and endorsing its conditionality, is one instrument available to governments to overcome this difficulty. The paper develops this interpretation of conditionality and indicates some of its operational implications for Fund programs.
Money and Monetary Policy --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Finance: General --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Credit ratings --- Money --- United States
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Reaching agreement on a reasonable performance target is a challenge, with costs associated with getting it wrong. Attention in the literature has focused on the potential negative effects of gaming or of creaming. However, even if there is no gaming or creaming taking place, there can still be costs associated with setting a level of the performance target that is either too low or too high. On the one hand, if the negotiated performance target is too low, there is a strong risk that the target would be met without any change in behavior or performance from what would have been realized without a performance management system. In that case, there would be no benefit-only the cost of covering the administrative costs associated with developing the monitoring and management systems. On the other hand, if the negotiated performance target is too high, there could also be significant costs. The exact nature of the costs depends on which one of two unattractive options the principal chooses to follow once it becomes apparent that the performance targets were set unrealistically high. If the principal chooses simply to waive any possible repercussions for the agents for not meeting the performance targets, this can undermine the credibility of the system. If the principal insists on holding agents to meeting the performance targets-no matter how unrealistic they were-this can breed resentment and adversely affect future productivity. This paper considers some approaches to target setting that have been used in the literature and proposes an approach based on the use of quantile regressions to construct a Characteristic Adjusted Performance distribution of performance to guide the selection of targets. The paper then presents two concrete examples of applications of this approach related to the setting of targets on School Test Scores and Improvement in Homicide rates in Police Districts in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil.
Behavior of Economic Agents --- E-Business --- Education for All --- Educational Sciences --- Government Performance --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Minas Gerais --- Poverty Reduction --- Target Setting --- Teaching and Learning --- Tertiary Education --- Brazil --- Latin America
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We analyse the consequences of carbon price heterogeneity on households in The EU from 2010 to 2020. Accounting for both heterogeneity in carbon pricing across emission sources and the indirect effects from inter-industry linkages, we obtain two key findings. First, due to widespread carbon pricing exemptions, household burdens are lower than previously estimated. Second, lower-income groups are affected disproportionately, because they spend a smaller share of their expenditure on products that benefit from exemptions than their higher-income counterparts. Therefore, imposing uniform carbon prices both within and across countries would reduce carbon pricing regressivity on household expenditure in the EU. A global price would be most effective in this regard, as it would raise carbon prices embodied in EU imports. Further, because EU economies are open and apply higher average carbon prices than their trade partners, the domestic revenues exceed the costs embodied in EU household consumptions bundles. This increases the scope for reducing the burden of carbon pricing on lower-income households through revenue redistribution. Our results imply that the ongoing extension of carbon pricing to more sectors through the EU ETS II and the introduction of the EU’s CBAM should make carbon pricing less regressive, all else equal.
Environment and Development --- Environment and Trade --- Environmental Accounts and Accounting --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Environmental Equity --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household --- Pollution Control Adoption and Costs • Distributional Effects • Employment Effects --- Population Growth --- Sustainability --- Taxation and Subsidies: Incidence
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This paper examines the role of tax policy reforms in enhancing fiscal shock smoothing in a panel of 13 OECD economies during the period 1980-2017. The results suggest that tax reforms, in particular those that broaden the tax base, significantly enhance the ability of fiscal policy to mitigate the impact of growth shocks on disposable income. We find that the magnitude of shock smoothing increases from an average of 2 percent to 3-3½ percent following the reform. The effects are considerably higher for tax base than tax rate changes, and also higher for indirect tax than direct tax changes. The effects are symmetric—that is, the increase in shock smoothing following a reform expanding the tax base (rate) is similar to the decline in shock smoothing after a reform narrowing the tax base (rate). Tax elasticity, collection efficiency, and the progressivity of the tax system are important channels through which tax reforms affect fiscal stabilization.
Fiscal policy. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Firm --- Fiscal Policy --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Fiscal policy --- Income and capital gains taxes --- Consumption taxes --- Personal income tax --- Value-added tax --- Income tax --- Spendings tax
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The paper analyzes the wage-employment effects of replacing unemployment benefits by negative income taxes. It first surveys the major equity and efficiency effects of unemployment benefits versus negative income taxes, and summarizes the salient features of many European unemployment benefit systems in this light. Second, it presents a simple theoretical model that focuses on the relative wage-employment effects of unemployment benefits versus negative income taxes. Finally, it provides some empirical groundwork for assessing this relative effect.
Labor --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Fiscal Policy --- Efficiency --- Optimal Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Firm --- Labor Demand --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Unemployment Insurance --- Severance Pay --- Plant Closings --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Personal income tax --- Unemployment benefits --- Income tax systems --- Expenditure --- Taxes --- Income tax --- Unemployment insurance --- Economic theory --- United Kingdom --- Income economics
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The 1980s trends were to lower marginal personal income tax rates, scale down rate structures, and apply the highest rate at lower levels of per capita GDP. In the 1990s, driven by fiscal deficits and unemployment, and difficulty in linking high marginal rates to low incentives or revenue productivity, tax authorities are again demonstrating an interest in increasing marginal rates. This will burden those that are correctly paying the tax. Instead, equity and revenue productivity should be improved through minimum taxes, presumptive taxes, adequate inclusion of capital income in the tax base, revitalization of property taxes, and selected luxury taxes.
Macroeconomics --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Taxation --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household --- Economic History: Government, War, Law, and Regulation: General, International, or Comparative --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Public finance & taxation --- Income and capital gains taxes --- Income tax systems --- Personal income tax --- Personal income --- Tax incentives --- Taxes --- National accounts --- Tax equity --- Tax policy --- Income tax --- Income --- Tax administration and procedure --- United States
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Small taxpayers should pay their appropriate revenue share while their compliance costs should be reduced. This assumes importance as restructuring in emerging markets has meant rapid growth in services through self-employed small entrepreneurs, who have good revenue potential. Administrative facilitators such as a single tax covering income tax, VAT, and social security tax, at a reduced rate, do not lower tax evasion. They increase vertical and horizontal inequity, and lead to adverse resource allocation. A strategy is needed, extending modernization achieved in large taxpayer units (LTUs) to small taxpayers, including rationalization of collection and reporting of revenue data for policy formulation.
Corporate Finance --- Taxation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Efficiency --- Optimal Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Incidence --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Taxation and Subsidies: Other --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Firm --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Public finance & taxation --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Income tax systems --- Value-added tax --- Tax administration core functions --- Small and medium enterprises --- Social security contributions --- Taxes --- Revenue administration --- Economic sectors --- Income tax --- Spendings tax --- Tax administration and procedure --- Small business --- Social security --- India
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This paper evaluates policy alternatives to achieve permanent fiscal consolidation in Hungary, based on a general equilibrium calibration. The main finding is that the composition of the consolidation, as determined by the mix of revenue and expenditure measures, has important implications for growth, employment, investment, and other key macroeconomic variables. A reduction in current expenditures yields the smallest GDP contraction in the short term and can increase output in the long term by stimulating labor participation and private investment. On the other end of the spectrum, a consolidation of government investment and corporate taxes are the most costly, as disincentives for private investment result in protracted declines in GDP that compound over time to GDP losses that are multiple times the initial size of the consolidation.
Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Fiscal Policy --- Efficiency --- Optimal Taxation --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Other --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Labor Economics: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Fiscal consolidation --- Consumption --- Public debt --- Labor --- Government consumption --- National accounts --- Economics --- Debts, Public --- Labor economics --- Hungary --- Income economics
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