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Der vorliegende Band aus der Reihe "Institute for Law and Finance Series" (ILFS) vereint die schriftlichen Fassungen der auf der Tagung der Tagung "Too Big To Fail - Brauchen wir ein Sonderinsolvenzrecht für Banken?" (5.11.2010, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt/Main) gehaltenen Vorträge und ergänzt sie um eine umfassende Einleitung. Der Band enthält sowohl deutsch- als auch englischsprachige Beiträge. Die ersten drei Aufsätze nehmen zu der Frage Stellung, ob es überhaupt eines speziellen Insolvenzrechts für Banken bedarf. Hierbei werden aktuelle gesetzgeberische Lösungsansätze auf deutscher und internationaler Ebene kritisch analysiert. Die beiden folgenden Beiträge widmen sich aus deutscher und aus rechtsvergleichender Perspektive der Frage, wie Auslöser für Bankinsolvenzverfahren beschaffen sein müssen, um ein geordnetes Verfahren rechtzeitig einzuleiten, ohne andererseits Gefahr zu laufen, zu früh in den Geschäftsbetrieb einer Bank und die Eigentumsrechte ihrer Gesellschafter einzugreifen. Die zwei anschließenden Aufsätze behandeln, wiederum aus deutscher und aus rechtsvergleichender Perspektive, die Frage, ob besondere Instrumente erforderlich sind, um ein Bankeninsolvenzverfahren erfolgreich durchführen zu können. Die beiden abschließenden Beiträge gehen auf den Gläubigerschutz in einem Sonderinsolvenzrecht für Banken ein und analysieren die aktuellen Entwicklungen im deutschen und US-amerikanischen Recht.
Bailouts (Government policy) --- Bank failure --- Banking law --- Banking law. --- Bankruptcy --- Financial institutions --- Law and legislation. --- Law and legislation --- Banks and banking --- Law, Banking --- Banking Crisis.
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Deposit insurance is a widely adopted policy to promote financial stability in the banking sector. Deposit insurance helps ensure depositors' confidence in the financial system and prevents contagious bank runs, but it also comes with an unintended consequence of encouraging banks to take on excessive risk. This paper reviews the economic costs and benefits of deposit insurance and highlights the importance of institutions and specific design features for how well deposit insurance schemes work in practice.
Bank Runs --- Banking Crisis --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Deposit Insurance --- Economic Growth --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Structures --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Moral Hazard
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This paper examines the impact of the recent banking crises in Europe and Central Asia on households' incomes and consumption patterns. The analysis is based on the 2010 wave of the Life in Transition Survey, which covers 12,704 households in eleven countries that experienced a banking crisis between 2008 and 2011. It finds that households in middle-income crisis countries are more than twice as likely to be hit by an income shock as households in high-income crisis countries. The labor market channel is the predominant source of income shocks, with wage reductions more widespread than job-losses. In reaction to income shocks, households reallocate spending from non-essential goods to staple foods. Reductions in staple-food consumption are, however, prevalent among low-income households. The paper examines potential crisis mitigators and finds that at the macro level a flexible monetary regime is associated with fewer cutbacks in household consumption. At the meso level, it finds no evidence that foreign bank ownership amplified the transmission of banking crises to households in Europe. With respect to micro-level mitigators, the analysis finds that diversified income sources as well as stocks of non-financial and financial assets help households to cushion income shocks. Access to informal and formal credit also mitigates the impact of income shocks on household consumption, with the former especially important in middle-income countries.
Access to Finance --- Banking crisis --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Consumption patterns --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Households' incomes --- Income shocks --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Wage reductions
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This paper investigates the effect that tight credit conditions had on outward foreign direct investment flows during the 2008-2010 global financial crisis. A difference-in-differences approach is used to isolate a "credit channel" impact of the global financial crisis on foreign direct investment. The global financial crisis had a stronger negative impact on the relative volume of outward foreign direct investment in financially vulnerable sectors in more financially developed countries, especially if these countries also experienced a banking crisis. These results suggest that lack of access to external finance can partly explain the drop in foreign direct investment during the global financial crisis.
Access to Finance --- Banking Crisis --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Credit Constraints --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Development --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Global Financial Crisis --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development
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Russia had more-or-less completed the privatization of its manufacturing and natural resource sectors by the end of 1997. And in February 1998, the annual inflation rate at last dipped into the single digits. Privatization should have helped with stronger micro-foundations for growth. The conquest of inflation should have cemented macroeconomic credibility, lowered real interest rates, and spurred investment. Instead, Russia suffered a massive public debt-exchange rate-banking crisis just six months later, in August 1998. In showing how this turn of events unfolded, the authors focus on the interaction among Russia's deteriorating fiscal fundamentals, its weak micro-foundations of growth and financial globalization. They argue that the expectation of a large official bailout in the final 10 weeks before the meltdown played an important role, with Russia's external debt increasing by USD 16 billion or 8 percent of post-crisis gross domestic product during this time. The lessons and insights extracted from the 1998 Russian crisis are of general applicability, oil and geopolitics notwithstanding. These include a discussion of when financial globalization might actually hurt and a cutoff in market access might actually help; circumstances in which an official bailout could backfire; and why financial engineering tends to fail when fiscal solvency problems are present.
Access to Finance --- Bailout --- Banking crisis --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Credibility --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Currency --- Debt Markets --- Debt obligations --- Emerging market --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange rate --- External debt --- Face value --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Globalization --- Gross domestic product --- Inflation --- Inflation rate --- International Bank --- Market access --- Private Sector Development --- Public debt --- Real interest --- Real interest rates --- Repo --- Solvency
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Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged approach: an event study of debt accumulation episodes in 100 emerging market and developing economies since 1970; a series of econometric models examining the linkages between debt and the probability of financial crises; and a set of case studies of rapid debt buildup that ended in crises. The paper reports four main results. First, episodes of debt accumulation are common, with more than 500 episodes occurring since 1970. Second, around half of these episodes were associated with financial crises which typically had worse economic outcomes than those without crises - after 8 years output per capita was typically 6-10 percent lower and investment 15-22 percent weaker in crisis episodes. Third, a rapid buildup of debt, whether public or private, increased the likelihood of a financial crisis, as did a larger share of short-term external debt, higher debt service cover, and lower reserves cover. Fourth, countries that experienced financial crises frequently employed combinations of unsustainable fiscal, monetary and financial sector policies, and often suffered from structural and institutional weaknesses.
Banking Crisis --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Currency Crisis --- Debt Accumulation --- Debt Crisis --- Debt Markets --- Debt Sustainability --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal Sustainability --- International Economics and Trade --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Private Debt --- Public Debt
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Russia had more-or-less completed the privatization of its manufacturing and natural resource sectors by the end of 1997. And in February 1998, the annual inflation rate at last dipped into the single digits. Privatization should have helped with stronger micro-foundations for growth. The conquest of inflation should have cemented macroeconomic credibility, lowered real interest rates, and spurred investment. Instead, Russia suffered a massive public debt-exchange rate-banking crisis just six months later, in August 1998. In showing how this turn of events unfolded, the authors focus on the interaction among Russia's deteriorating fiscal fundamentals, its weak micro-foundations of growth and financial globalization. They argue that the expectation of a large official bailout in the final 10 weeks before the meltdown played an important role, with Russia's external debt increasing by USD 16 billion or 8 percent of post-crisis gross domestic product during this time. The lessons and insights extracted from the 1998 Russian crisis are of general applicability, oil and geopolitics notwithstanding. These include a discussion of when financial globalization might actually hurt and a cutoff in market access might actually help; circumstances in which an official bailout could backfire; and why financial engineering tends to fail when fiscal solvency problems are present.
Access to Finance --- Bailout --- Banking crisis --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Credibility --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Currency --- Debt Markets --- Debt obligations --- Emerging market --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange rate --- External debt --- Face value --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Globalization --- Gross domestic product --- Inflation --- Inflation rate --- International Bank --- Market access --- Private Sector Development --- Public debt --- Real interest --- Real interest rates --- Repo --- Solvency
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As the recovery in high-income countries firms amid a gradual withdrawal of extraordinary monetary stimulus, developing countries can expect stronger demand for their exports as global trade regains momentum, but also rising interest rates and potentially weaker capital inflows. This paper assesses the implications of a normalization of policy and activity in high-income countries for financial flows and crisis risks in developing countries. In the most likely scenario, a relatively orderly process of normalization would imply a slowdown in capital inflows amounting to 0.6 percent of developing-country GDP between 2013 and 2016, driven in particular by weaker portfolio investments. However, the risk of more abrupt adjustments remains significant, especially if increased market volatility accompanies the unwinding of unprecedented central bank interventions. According to simulations, abrupt changes in market expectations, resulting in global bond yields increasing by 100 to 200 basis points within a couple of quarters, could lead to a sharp reduction in capital inflows to developing countries by between 50 and 80 percent for several months. Evidence from past banking crises suggests that countries having seen a substantial expansion of domestic credit over the past five years, deteriorating current account balances, high levels of foreign and short-term debt, and over-valued exchange rates could be more at risk in current circumstances. Countries with adequate policy buffers and investor confidence may be able to rely on market mechanisms and countercyclical macroeconomic and prudential policies to deal with a retrenchment of foreign capital. In other cases, where the scope for maneuver is more limited, countries may be forced to tighten fiscal and monetary policy to reduce financing needs and attract additional inflows.
Banking Crisis --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Globalization --- International Capital Flows --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Tapering of Quantitative Easing --- Unconventional Monetary Policies
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This paper studies how crises prompted firms to switch borrowing across markets, impacting the amount borrowed, maturity, and currency denomination at the firm and aggregate levels. Using data on worldwide debt issuance from advanced and emerging economies, the paper shows that firms shifted their issuances between domestic and international syndicated loans and corporate bonds during financial crises. Firms reduced their borrowing in shock-hit markets but increased it in other debt markets. Firms also moved toward longer-term markets, maintaining (or even increasing) their borrowing maturity. As they moved toward domestic markets during international crises, firms reduced the share of foreign currency debt. The opposite occurred during domestic crises. Large firms were the ones that switched between international and domestic markets, affecting aggregate capital raising activity. The analysis of four distinct markets generates patterns consistent with credit supply shocks that are different from those obtained when studying the dynamics of individual markets.
Banking Crisis --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Bond Issues --- Capital Markets and Capital Flows --- Corporate Bonds --- Corporate Debt --- Corporate Finance --- Debt Markets --- Debt Maturity --- Emerging Market Economies --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring --- Global Financial Crisis --- International Economics and Trade --- Private Sector Development --- Securities Markets Policy and Regulation --- Sovereign Debt --- Syndicated Loans
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The authors review the series of events that led to the 2002 Uruguayan banking crisis, assess the current status of the Uruguayan banking sector, and analyze the policy responses undertaken by the Uruguayan authorities to counteract the crisis. The main conclusion from their analysis is that although the immediate trigger for the crisis was caused by contagion resulting from Argentina's financial crisis, the spread and magnification of the crisis that engulfed the Uruguayan economy was amplified by certain weaknesses of the Uruguayan economy in general, and the domestic banking sector in particular. The authors also believe that the policy responses adopted by the Uruguayan authorities were mostly adequate, allowing Uruguay to successfully counteract simultaneous banking and public debt crises. Most important, the Uruguayan authorities were able to overcome a severe crisis while preserving the necessary trust in banking contracts, achieving a high level of social stability and political cohesion, and maintaining a fluid dialogue with multilateral financial institutions and all affected parties. The cooperative and consensual approach taken by the authorities created the necessary conditions to overcome some of the important obstacles to the recovery of the domestic banking sector.
Bank Policy --- Banking Crisis --- Banking Sector --- Banking System --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Contracts --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Currency --- Currency Mismatch --- Debt Crises --- Debt Markets --- Debt Restructuring --- Domestic Banking --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Exchange Rate --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring --- Financial Institutions --- Financial Intermediation --- Financial Literacy --- Government Debt --- International Financial Institutions --- Payment System --- Policy Responses --- Private Banks --- Private Sector Development --- Public Debt
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