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Against the background of continued growth disappointments, depressed inflation expectations, and declining real equilibrium interest rates, a number of central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies (NIRP) to provide additional monetary policy stimulus over the past few years. This paper studies the sources and implications of NIRP. It reports four main results. First, monetary transmission channels under NIRP are conceptually analogous to those under conventional monetary policy but NIRP present complications that could limit policy effectiveness. Second, since the introduction of NIRP, many of the key financial variables have evolved broadly as implied by the standard transmission channels. Third, NIRP could pose risks to financial stability, particularly if policy rates are substantially below zero or if NIRP are employed for a protracted period of time. Potential adverse consequences include the erosion of profitability of banks and other financial intermediaries, and excessive risk taking. However, there has so far been no significant evidence that financial stability has been compromised because of NIRP. Fourth, spillover implications of NIRP for emerging market and developing economies are mostly similar to those of other unconventional monetary policy measures. In sum, NIRP have a place in a policy maker's toolkit but, given their domestic and global implications, these policies need to be handled with care to secure their benefits while mitigating risks.
Bank Profitability --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Quantitative Easing --- Unconventional Monetary Policy
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In order to explain mainly the instantaneous and cumulative impulse responses of bank profitability on the negotiable debt securities market to innovation shocks related to profitability itself, the inflation rate and the key rate between 2008 and 2019 in the DRC, it was appropriate to apply econometric analyses via non-structural VAR modelling. Indeed, after estimating the model, the empirical results obtained confirm that inflation and key interest rates significantly cause, in the Granger sense, bank profitability for the period under study. In the same vein, the instantaneous impulse response function (IRF) analysis showed that profitability reacted first negatively and significantly and then positively to innovations in the inflation rate when the innovation shock is projected over time: the maximum negative impact being reached 2 weeks after the shock and the maximum positive impact 3 weeks after the shock before returning to balance after about 6 weeks. The (IRF) first shows a positive profitability response to the key rate before turning negative when the shock is projected over time: the maximum negative impact being reached 3 weeks after the shock and the maximum positive impact 2 weeks after the shock before returning to equilibrium after about 5 weeks. The (IRF) reveals that profitability reacts negatively to its own innovations. On the other hand, we can realize that the accumulated impulse response (AIR) shows a positive and significant profitability response to its own innovations and those of the key rate, whereas it reacted negatively to an innovation shock on the inflation rate before returning to balance. In addition, the analysis of the decomposition of the variance of the VAR model's forecast error variance showed that the variance of the profitability forecast error was due to its own innovations averaging 80.1% and those of the key rate averaging 19.6%, as well as to innovations in the inflation rate averaging 0.32% over 10 periods, all in proportion. Finally, these analyses covered 18 banks operating in the DRC and a size of 516 observations at weekly frequency from April 2008 to September 2019.
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This paper revisits trends in bank privatization and analyzes their economic impact over the past 25 years. Building on a novel data set of privatization events for 70 developed and developing countries, it shows that bank privatization became more frequent since the Global Financial Crisis, especially in emerging markets such as China and India, but also smaller in that the fraction of a bank's ownership relinquished during privatization events declined. The majority of privatizations happened via public sales in domestic capital markets. The banks that were chosen to be privatized tended to underperform their peers and had weaker asset quality pre-privatization, but the empirical evidence on banks' post-privatization performance is mixed. The paper finds that privatized banks turn toward more traditional banking models and increase credit extension with no apparent negative distributional implications. However, the analysis does not reveal significant differences in bank profitability post-privatization, although differences exist between developed and developing countries. Notably, banks that have been recapitalized prior to privatization perform significantly better afterward privatization.
Bank Profitability --- Decentralization --- Emerging Market Economies --- Finance and Development --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Financial Development --- Privatization --- Public Economics --- Public Sector Development --- State-Owned Banks
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Risk measures play a vital role in many subfields of economics and finance. It has been proposed that risk measures could be analysed in relation to the performance of variables extracted from empirical real-world data. For example, risk measures may help inform effective monetary and fiscal policies and, therefore, the further development of pricing models for financial assets such as equities, bonds, currencies, and derivative securities.
risk assessment --- VIX --- business groups --- SHARE --- asymptotic approximation --- European stock markets --- whole life insurance --- dynamic hedging --- risk-neutral distribution --- cooperative banks --- Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) --- group-affiliated --- early warning system --- factor models --- smoothing process --- GMC --- falsified products --- S&P 500 index options --- credit derivatives --- corporate sustainability --- term life insurance --- risk management --- crude oil --- financial stability --- social efficiency --- dynamic conditional correlation --- emerging market --- out-of-sample forecast --- financial crisis --- binomial tree --- news release --- green energy --- perceived usefulness --- Bayesian approach --- two-level optimization --- probability of default --- bank risk --- SYMBOL --- information asymmetry --- CoVaR --- probabilistic cash flow --- japonica rice production --- bank profitability --- Monte Carlo Simulations --- gain-loss ratio --- coherent risk measures --- Mezzanine Financing --- national health system --- option value --- conscientiousness --- online purchase intention --- Slovak enterprises --- spot and futures prices --- liquidity premium --- institutional voids --- utility --- random forests --- bankruptcy --- optimizing financial model --- sustainable food security system --- dynamic panel --- co-dependence modelling --- financial performance --- time-varying correlations --- Project Financing --- future health risk --- generalized autoregressive score functions --- volatility spillovers --- financial risks --- simulations --- life insurance --- emotion --- finance risk --- markov regime switching --- diversification --- production frontier function --- Granger causality --- health risk --- risks mitigation --- returns and volatility --- sadness --- low-income country --- the sudden stop of capital inflow --- bank failure --- China’s food policy --- objective health status --- IPO underpricing --- polarity --- climate change --- stock return volatility --- sentiment analysis --- empirical process --- full BEKK --- stochastic frontier model --- perceived ease of use --- volatility transmission --- openness to experience --- sustainability --- low carbon targets --- quasi likelihood ratio (QLR) test --- banking regulation --- sustainable development --- specification testing --- fossil fuels --- time-varying copula function --- tree structures --- monthly CPI data --- coal --- cartel --- regular vine copulas --- sustainability of economic recovery --- ANN --- EGARCH-m --- financial security --- leniency program --- financial hazard map --- uncertainty termination --- causal path --- stakeholder theory --- technological progress --- banking --- investment horizon --- regression model --- two-level CES function --- joy --- the optimal scale of foreign exchange reserve --- carbon emissions --- stochastic volatility --- B-splines --- self-perceived health --- sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) --- RV5MIN --- utility maximization --- credit risk --- policy simulation --- socially responsible investment --- portfolio selection --- scientific verification --- European banking system --- risk-free rate --- wild bootstrap --- medication --- investment profitability --- Amihud’s illiquidity ratio --- multivariate regime-switching --- inflation forecast --- risk aversion --- market timing --- need hierarchy theory --- variance --- diagonal BEKK --- conjugate prior --- risk --- moving averages --- financial risk --- risk measures
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