Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

"There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-incorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it"--

Probabilities --- Mathematical statistics --- Binomial distribution. --- Law of large numbers. --- MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy --- Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) --- Bayesian statistics. --- frequentist statistics. --- history of math. --- history of statistics. --- probability. --- replication crisis. --- statistics and science. --- statistics. --- Philosophy --- Philosophy. --- Bernoulli, Jakob, --- Influence. --- 1800-1999

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Many scientists now widely agree that the current paradigm of statistical significance should be abandoned or largely modified. In response to these calls for change, a Special Issue of Econometrics (MDPI) has been proposed. This book is a collection of the articles that have been published in this Special Issue. These seven articles add new insights to the problem and propose new methods that lay a solid foundation for the new paradigm for statistical significance.

p-value --- Bayesian --- model specification --- model testing --- reporting results (p-values) --- replications --- equivalence --- minimum-effect --- non-inferiority --- point-null hypothesis testing --- zero probability paradox --- t-statistic --- pretest estimator --- model averaging --- a priori procedure --- null hypothesis significance testing --- confidence intervals --- p-values --- estimation --- hypothesis testing --- replication crisis --- profit maximization --- market failure --- teaching of econometrics --- regression analysis --- economics pedagogy --- n/a

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

"There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-incorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it"--

Probabilities --- Mathematical statistics --- Binomial distribution. --- Law of large numbers. --- MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy --- Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) --- Philosophy --- Philosophy. --- Bernoulli, Jakob, --- Influence. --- 1800-1999 --- Bayesian statistics. --- frequentist statistics. --- history of math. --- history of statistics. --- probability. --- replication crisis. --- statistics and science. --- statistics. --- Large numbers, Law of --- Numbers, Large --- Convergence --- Artistic impact --- Artistic influence --- Impact (Literary, artistic, etc.) --- Literary impact --- Literary influence --- Literary tradition --- Tradition (Literature) --- Art --- Influence (Psychology) --- Literature --- Intermediality --- Intertextuality --- Originality in literature --- Bernoulli distribution --- Distribution, Bernoulli --- Distribution, Binomial --- Binomial theorem --- Distribution (Probability theory) --- Mathematics --- Statistical inference --- Statistics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Sampling (Statistics) --- Probability --- Combinations --- Chance --- Least squares --- Risk --- Statistical methods --- Bernoulli, Jacques, --- Bernoullius, Jacobus, --- Bernulli, I︠A︡kob, --- Bernoulli, Jacob,

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Experimental cognitive psychology research is a hidden force in our online lives. We engage with it, often unknowingly, whenever we download a health app, complete a Facebook quiz, or rate our latest purchase. How did experimental psychology come to play an outsized role in these developments? This book considers this question through a look at cognitive psychology laboratories. Emily Martin traces how psychological research methods evolved, escaped the boundaries of the discipline, and infiltrated social media and our digital universe.

Psychology --- Psychology, Experimental. --- Human experimentation in psychology. --- Experimental psychologists. --- SOCIAL SCIENCE / Anthropology / Cultural & Social. --- Cognitive psychology --- Experiments. --- Experimental psychology --- Experimental psychologists --- Psychological experiments --- Psychology, Experimental --- Psychology, Cognitive --- Cognitive science --- Experimentation on humans, Psychological --- Psychological experimentation on humans --- Psychologists, Experimental --- Psychological research personnel --- Psychologists --- Research --- Experiments --- Psychology - Experiments --- Cognitive psychology - Experiments --- Human experimentation in psychology --- Cognitive psychology. --- Abstraction. --- Analogy. --- Anthropologist. --- Anthropology. --- Basic science (psychology). --- Behavior. --- Behaviorism. --- Behavioural sciences. --- Calculation. --- Causality. --- Coaching. --- Cognition. --- Cognitive science. --- Collaboration. --- Consciousness. --- Conspiracy theory. --- Control room. --- Cross-cultural psychology. --- Cultural practice. --- Decision-making. --- Digital media. --- Electroencephalography. --- Experiment. --- Experimental data. --- Experimental psychology. --- Face perception. --- Folk psychology. --- Functional magnetic resonance imaging. --- Funding of science. --- Gestalt psychology. --- Hallucination. --- Heuristic. --- How the Mind Works. --- Human subject research. --- Idealization. --- Ideology. --- Imagination. --- Information seeking. --- Interrogation. --- Introspection. --- Laboratory Life. --- Language game. --- Lecture. --- Machine learning. --- Mental disorder. --- Mental representation. --- Microcomputer. --- Minds. --- Mood (psychology). --- Natural experiment. --- Neuropsychology. --- Neuroscientist. --- Objectivity (science). --- Observation. --- Opportunism. --- Organizing (management). --- Parapsychology. --- Perceptual psychology. --- Personality quiz. --- Persuasive technology. --- Pragmatism. --- Prediction. --- Product manager. --- Psyche (psychology). --- Psychic. --- Psychological Science. --- Psychological manipulation. --- Psychological research. --- Psychological testing. --- Psychologist. --- Psychology. --- Psychopathology. --- Qualia. --- Qualitative research. --- Questionnaire. --- Quiz. --- Replication crisis. --- Research assistant. --- Schizophrenia (object-oriented programming). --- Science project. --- Science. --- Scientific method. --- Scientist. --- Scrutiny. --- Self-report study. --- Social psychology. --- Software. --- Spiritualism. --- Stanford prison experiment. --- Stimulation. --- Subjectivity. --- Technology. --- Test theory. --- Theory of mind. --- Thought. --- User experience design. --- Valence (psychology). --- Vulnerability (computing). --- Wilhelm Wundt.