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The commodities and capital markets, including derivatives, are always followed by some amount of risk. One of the derivatives are options and the selection process of option strategies represents one of the most unexplored trading instruments. The aim of my research is to explore the performance of option strategies based on basic volatility forecasting and to provide the best combinations to get profit with a reasonable risk.

This research tries to understand and model factors that impact the option strategies selection. Those factors are the price of the underlying asset, the maturity and the volatility. I used the Stata software and the MatLab software to create algorithms that are implementing my emperical analaysis, my forecastings, my option strategies selection and my tests of performance. An important part of the work is the return computation of the classical option strategies based on the S&P 500, the EURO-USD exchange rate and the Yuan to USD exchange rate. I used a wide range of tests to examine the normality, the stationarity, the seasonality and the white noise of the data. Another significant part of my work is about volatility forecasting. Two main methods have been used to do it: standard deviation and GARCH family models.

The results of the all different approaches I used show that the residuals of the EURO-USD and Yuan to USD exchange rates follow a white noise. This is a characteristic of efficient market and in order to have more success with my investment process in the future, we need to seek for non-efficient markets. It has also showed the incredible outperformance of the combination of my forecasting process and the Butterfly strategy, especially when it is applied to the S&P 500.

Option strategies --- Volatility --- GARCH family models --- Butterfly strategy --- S&P 500 --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Méthodes quantitatives en économie & gestion

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Recently, considerable attention has been placed on the development and application of tools useful for the analysis of the high-dimensional and/or high-frequency datasets that now dominate the landscape. The purpose of this Special Issue is to collect both methodological and empirical papers that develop and utilize state-of-the-art econometric techniques for the analysis of such data.

Economics, finance, business & management --- level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve --- Nelson-Siegel factors --- supervised factor models --- combining forecasts --- principal components --- Minimum variance portfolio --- risk --- shrinkage --- S&amp --- P 500 --- high-frequency --- volatility --- forecasting --- realized measures --- bivariate GARCH --- Japanese candlestick --- ordered fuzzy number --- Kosiński’s number --- oriented fuzzy number --- dynamic analysis of securities --- integrated volatility --- high-frequency data --- jumps --- realized skewness --- cross-sectional stock returns --- signed jump variation --- long-range dependence --- log periodogram regression --- smoothed periodogram --- subsampling --- intraday returns --- portfolio selection --- maximum diversification --- regularization --- level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve --- Nelson-Siegel factors --- supervised factor models --- combining forecasts --- principal components --- Minimum variance portfolio --- risk --- shrinkage --- S&amp --- P 500 --- high-frequency --- volatility --- forecasting --- realized measures --- bivariate GARCH --- Japanese candlestick --- ordered fuzzy number --- Kosiński’s number --- oriented fuzzy number --- dynamic analysis of securities --- integrated volatility --- high-frequency data --- jumps --- realized skewness --- cross-sectional stock returns --- signed jump variation --- long-range dependence --- log periodogram regression --- smoothed periodogram --- subsampling --- intraday returns --- portfolio selection --- maximum diversification --- regularization

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"Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist—the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo’s new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work." -- Publisher's description.

Investments --- Stock exchanges. --- Efficient market theory. --- Psychological aspects. --- Market theory, Efficient --- Capital market --- Stock exchanges --- Bulls and bears --- Commercial corners --- Corners, Commercial --- Equity markets --- Exchanges, Securities --- Exchanges, Stock --- Securities exchanges --- Stock-exchange --- Stock markets --- Efficient market theory --- Speculation --- Adaptive market hypothesis. --- Arbitrage. --- Asset. --- Bank run. --- Bank. --- Behavior. --- Behavioral economics. --- Biology. --- Broker-dealer. --- Calculation. --- Career. --- Central bank. --- Competition. --- Cryptocurrency. --- Currency. --- Customer. --- Debt. --- Decision-making. --- Economics. --- Economist. --- Ecosystem. --- Efficient-market hypothesis. --- Employment. --- Entrepreneurship. --- Equity Market. --- Evolution. --- Finance. --- Financial crisis of 2007–08. --- Financial crisis. --- Financial economics. --- Financial innovation. --- Financial institution. --- Financial services. --- Financial technology. --- Forecasting. --- Fraud. --- Funding. --- Hedge Fund Manager. --- Hedge fund. --- Heuristic. --- Homo economicus. --- Human behavior. --- Incentive. --- Income. --- Insider. --- Insurance. --- Interest rate. --- Investment strategy. --- Investment. --- Investor. --- Leverage (finance). --- Macroeconomics. --- Margin (finance). --- Market (economics). --- Market Dynamics. --- Market liquidity. --- Market maker. --- Market price. --- Market trend. --- Myron Scholes. --- Narrative. --- Paul Samuelson. --- Ponzi scheme. --- Portfolio manager. --- Prediction. --- Prefrontal cortex. --- Probability matching. --- Probability. --- Psychology. --- Random walk hypothesis. --- Rational expectations. --- Rationality. --- Result. --- Risk aversion. --- Risk management. --- S&P 500 Index. --- Salary. --- Saving. --- Scientist. --- Share price. --- Sociobiology. --- Speculation. --- Stock market crash. --- Stock market. --- Supply (economics). --- Systemic risk. --- Technology. --- The Wisdom of Crowds. --- Theory. --- Thought experiment. --- Thought. --- Time series. --- Trade-off. --- Trader (finance). --- Trading strategy. --- Uncertainty. --- Venture capital. --- Warren Buffett. --- Wealth. --- Year.

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This book is a collection of papers for the Special Issue “Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance” of the journal Mathematics. This Special Issue reflects on the latest developments in different fields of economics and finance where mathematics plays a significant role. The book gathers 19 papers on topics such as volatility clusters and volatility dynamic, forecasting, stocks, indexes, cryptocurrencies and commodities, trade agreements, the relationship between volume and price, trading strategies, efficiency, regression, utility models, fraud prediction, or intertemporal choice.

academic cheating --- tax evasion --- informality --- pairs trading --- hurst exponent --- financial markets --- long memory --- co-movement --- cointegration --- risk --- delay --- decision-making process --- probability --- discount --- detection --- mean square error --- multicollinearity --- raise regression --- variance inflation factor --- derivation --- intertemporal choice --- decreasing impatience --- elasticity --- GARCH --- EGARCH --- VaR --- historical simulation approach --- peaks-over-threshold --- EVT --- student t-copula --- generalized Pareto distribution --- centered model --- noncentered model --- intercept --- essential multicollinearity --- nonessential multicollinearity --- commodity prices --- futures prices --- number of factors --- eigenvalues --- volatility cluster --- Hurst exponent --- FD4 approach --- volatility series --- probability of volatility cluster --- S&amp --- P500 --- Bitcoin --- Ethereum --- Ripple --- bitcoin --- deep learning --- deep recurrent convolutional neural networks --- forecasting --- asset pricing --- financial distress prediction --- unconstrained distributed lag model --- multiple periods --- Chinese listed companies --- cash flow management --- corporate prudential risk --- the financial accelerator --- financial distress --- induced risk aversion --- liquidity constraints --- liquidity risk --- macroeconomic propagation --- multiperiod financial management --- non-linear macroeconomic modelling --- Tobin’s q --- precautionary savings --- pharmaceutical industry --- scale economies --- profitability --- biotechnological firms --- non-parametric efficiency --- productivity --- DEA --- dispersion trading --- option arbitrage --- volatility trading --- correlation risk premium --- econometrics --- computational finance --- ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) --- autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) --- support vector regression (SVR) --- genetic algorithm (GA) --- energy consumption --- cryptocurrency --- gold --- P 500 --- DCC --- copula --- copulas --- Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation --- local optima vs. local minima --- SRA approach --- foreign direct investment --- bilateral investment treaties --- regional trade agreements --- structural gravity model --- policy uncertainty --- stock prices --- dynamically simulated autoregressive distributed lag (DYS-ARDL) --- threshold regression --- United States

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Risk measures play a vital role in many subfields of economics and finance. It has been proposed that risk measures could be analysed in relation to the performance of variables extracted from empirical real-world data. For example, risk measures may help inform effective monetary and fiscal policies and, therefore, the further development of pricing models for financial assets such as equities, bonds, currencies, and derivative securities.A Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” will be devoted to advancements in the mathematical and statistical development of risk measures with applications in finance and economics. This Special Issue will bring together the theory, practice and real-world applications of risk measures. This book is a collection of papers published in the Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” for Sustainability in 2018.

risk assessment --- VIX --- business groups --- SHARE --- asymptotic approximation --- European stock markets --- whole life insurance --- dynamic hedging --- risk-neutral distribution --- cooperative banks --- Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) --- group-affiliated --- early warning system --- factor models --- smoothing process --- GMC --- falsified products --- S&P 500 index options --- credit derivatives --- corporate sustainability --- term life insurance --- risk management --- crude oil --- financial stability --- social efficiency --- dynamic conditional correlation --- emerging market --- out-of-sample forecast --- financial crisis --- binomial tree --- news release --- green energy --- perceived usefulness --- Bayesian approach --- two-level optimization --- probability of default --- bank risk --- SYMBOL --- information asymmetry --- CoVaR --- probabilistic cash flow --- japonica rice production --- bank profitability --- Monte Carlo Simulations --- gain-loss ratio --- coherent risk measures --- Mezzanine Financing --- national health system --- option value --- conscientiousness --- online purchase intention --- Slovak enterprises --- spot and futures prices --- liquidity premium --- institutional voids --- utility --- random forests --- bankruptcy --- optimizing financial model --- sustainable food security system --- dynamic panel --- co-dependence modelling --- financial performance --- time-varying correlations --- Project Financing --- future health risk --- generalized autoregressive score functions --- volatility spillovers --- financial risks --- simulations --- life insurance --- emotion --- finance risk --- markov regime switching --- diversification --- production frontier function --- Granger causality --- health risk --- risks mitigation --- returns and volatility --- sadness --- low-income country --- the sudden stop of capital inflow --- bank failure --- China’s food policy --- objective health status --- IPO underpricing --- polarity --- climate change --- stock return volatility --- sentiment analysis --- empirical process --- full BEKK --- stochastic frontier model --- perceived ease of use --- volatility transmission --- openness to experience --- sustainability --- low carbon targets --- quasi likelihood ratio (QLR) test --- banking regulation --- sustainable development --- specification testing --- fossil fuels --- time-varying copula function --- tree structures --- monthly CPI data --- coal --- cartel --- regular vine copulas --- sustainability of economic recovery --- ANN --- EGARCH-m --- financial security --- leniency program --- financial hazard map --- uncertainty termination --- causal path --- stakeholder theory --- technological progress --- banking --- investment horizon --- regression model --- two-level CES function --- joy --- the optimal scale of foreign exchange reserve --- carbon emissions --- stochastic volatility --- B-splines --- self-perceived health --- sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) --- RV5MIN --- utility maximization --- credit risk --- policy simulation --- socially responsible investment --- portfolio selection --- scientific verification --- European banking system --- risk-free rate --- wild bootstrap --- medication --- investment profitability --- Amihud’s illiquidity ratio --- multivariate regime-switching --- inflation forecast --- risk aversion --- market timing --- need hierarchy theory --- variance --- diagonal BEKK --- conjugate prior --- risk --- moving averages --- financial risk --- risk measures