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Did the rise in food prices have a long-term impact on agricultural production? Using household-level panel data from seven provinces of Indonesia, this paper finds that the price shock created a forward-looking incentive to invest, which can dynamically enhance productivity in agriculture. It also finds that the impact of the price shock on investment behavior differs by initial wealth. In response to price increases, wealthy farmers invested more in productive assets, while poor farmers increased their financial savings as well as consumption. Price spikes relax liquidity constraints, which increases investments among the richer while do so savings and consumptions among the poor, possibly leading to diverging income inequality in the long run.

Anticipated shock --- Emerging Markets --- Expectation --- Food & Beverage Industry --- Investment effect --- Liquidity constraint --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction

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Did the rise in food prices have a long-term impact on agricultural production? Using household-level panel data from seven provinces of Indonesia, this paper finds that the price shock created a forward-looking incentive to invest, which can dynamically enhance productivity in agriculture. It also finds that the impact of the price shock on investment behavior differs by initial wealth. In response to price increases, wealthy farmers invested more in productive assets, while poor farmers increased their financial savings as well as consumption. Price spikes relax liquidity constraints, which increases investments among the richer while do so savings and consumptions among the poor, possibly leading to diverging income inequality in the long run.

Anticipated shock --- Emerging Markets --- Expectation --- Food & Beverage Industry --- Investment effect --- Liquidity constraint --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction

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November 1999 - While macroeconomic reforms are necessary, firms' investment response is likely to remain limited without an accompanying improvement in public sector performance. Investment rates in Uganda are similar to others in Africa - averaging slightly more than 10 percent annually, with a median value of just under 1 percent. But the country's profit rates are considerably lower. These results are consistent with the view that Ugandan firms display more confidence in the economy than their counterparts in other African countries. Thus, for given profit rates, Ugandan firms invest more. At the same time, increased competition (because of economic liberalization) has exerted pressure on firms to cut costs. Many of those costs are not under the firms' control, however, so their profits have suffered. Using firm-level data, Reinikka and Svensson identify and quantify a number of cost factors, including those associated with transport, corruption, and utility services. Several factors - including crime, erratic infrastructure services, and arbitrary tax administration - not only increase firms' operating costs but affect their perceptions of the risks of investing in (partly) irreversible capital. The empirical analysis suggests that firms - especially small firms - are liquidity-constrained in the sense that they invest only when sufficient internal funds are available. But given the firms' profit-capital ratio, it is hard to argue that the liquidity constraint is binding in most cases, even though the cost of capital is perceived as a problem. This paper - a joint product of Macroeconomics 2, Africa Region, and Public Economics and Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to study economic policy, public service delivery, and growth. The authors may be contacted at rreinikka@worldbank.org or jsvensson@worldbank.org.

Banks and Banking Reform --- Capital Investment --- Debt Markets --- Economic Liberalization --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Financial Support --- Future --- Good --- Infrastructure Economics and Finance --- Investing --- Investment --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Investment Rates --- Labor Policies --- Liquidity --- Liquidity Constraint --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomic Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microfinance --- Non Bank Financial Institutions --- Private Investment --- Private Participation in Infrastructure --- Private Sector Development --- Prof Profits --- Public Investment --- Return --- Share --- Social Protections and Labor --- Tax

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This paper studies the role of morality in the decision to repay debts. Using a field experiment with a large Islamic bank in Indonesia, the paper finds that moral appeals strongly increase credit card repayments. In this setting, all of the banks late-paying credit card customers receive a basic reminder to repay their debt one day after they miss the payment due date. In addition, two days before the end of a ten-day grace period, clients in a treatment group also receive a text message that cites an Islamic religious text and states that "non-repayment of debts by someone who is able to repay is an injustice." This message increases the share of customers meeting their minimum payments by nearly 20 percent. By contrast, sending either a simple reminder or an Islamic quote that is unrelated to debt repayment has no effect on the share of customers making the minimum payment. Clients also respond more strongly to this moral appeal than to substantial financial incentives: receiving the religious message increases repayments by more than offering a cash rebate equivalent to 50 percent of the minimum repayment. Finally, the paper finds that removing religious aspects from the quote does not change its effectiveness, suggesting that the moral appeal of the message does not necessarily rely on its religious connotation.

Access to credit --- Adverse selection --- Arrears --- Assets --- Bank indonesia --- Banking --- Bankruptcy and resolution of financial distress --- Banks and banking reform --- Borrowers --- Checking account --- Collect debts --- Collections --- Communications --- Consumer choice --- Consumer choices --- Credit card --- Credit card debt --- Credit control --- Credit market --- Current debt --- Customer service --- Customers --- Debt --- Debt forgiveness --- Debt markets --- Debt relief --- Debt repayment --- Debtor --- Debts --- Default --- Deposit --- E-Business --- Emerging markets --- Equity --- Equity fund --- Estate private sector development --- Ethical behavior --- Ethical global equity --- Ethical global equity fund --- Exchange --- Fair trade --- Finance and financial sector development --- Financial development --- Financial products --- Forgiveness --- Gambling --- Global equity --- Goods --- Grace period --- Grants --- Human capital --- Human rights --- Income --- Indebted --- Indebted poor countries --- Insurance --- Interest --- Interest rate --- Interest rates --- Interested party --- International bank --- Investment --- Investment management --- Investor --- Islamic bank --- Islamic law --- Late payment --- Law --- Liquidity --- Liquidity constraint --- Loan --- Loan repayment --- Moral hazard --- Moral suasion --- Mortgage --- New credit --- Outsourcing --- Outstanding debt --- Partner bank --- Payment --- Payments --- Peer pressure --- Penalties --- Penalty --- Political economy --- Portfolio --- Price --- Pricing --- Property --- Public debt --- Real estate --- Repayment --- Repayment behavior --- Repayment of debt --- Repayment of debts --- Repayment rate --- Repayment rates --- Responsible investment --- Restructuring --- Revenue --- Risk --- Saving --- Savings --- Savings account --- Savings accounts --- Services --- Share --- Shares --- Socially responsible investment --- Sovereign debt --- Stocks --- Student debt --- Student loans --- Trade --- Usury laws