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This paper presents new empirical evidence on how fiscal space in Sub-Saharan Africa has evolved over the past 15 years. Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept that is proxied by indicators capturing aspects of fiscal sustainability, balance sheet vulnerabilities, external debt positions, and market perception. The analysis relies on a new comprehensive database developed on a wide array of indicators (28) for a large set of countries in the world-of which 48 are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis finds that, breaking with history, Sub-Saharan African countries were able to conduct countercyclical policies amid the 2008-09 global financial crisis, thanks to built-up liquidity and policy buffers. The evidence shows that fiscal adjustment efforts in the region were reversed amid the 2014-16 plunge in commodity prices, and oil and minerals and metals exporters saw a sharp deterioration in their primary balance sustainability gap. The paper finds a great deal of heterogeneity in the post-global financial crisis evolution of the fiscal space in the region. In countries with reduced fiscal space, the increase in the number of tax years to repay the debt fully was 1.1 years for the representative country, and in over one-third of the countries, this increase was more than one standard deviation above the median.

Agriculture --- Capital Flows --- Capital Markets and Capital Flows --- Economic Adjustment and Lending --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal Space --- General Government Gross Debt --- International Economics & Trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Primary Surplus --- Public Sector Development

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This paper looks at how countries have mobilized additional resources for education and assesses their impact on access and learning outcomes, using the World Bank's new Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling measure. The paper shows that global spending on education has risen significantly over the past two decades, although spending as a share of gross domestic product has remained relatively unchanged, at about 4.5 percent. However, global trends mask large differences across regions and country income groups. For example, low-income countries recorded the largest increases in terms of the share of GDP spent on education, but the absolute amount they devoted to education remained low compared to other countries. Economic growth has been the main driver of increases in public education spending. Yet, countries that achieved the largest and most rapid spending increases did this through a combination of increases in overall government revenues, a greater prioritization of education in the government budget as well as healthy economic growth. Increases in public education spending did not generally result in major improvements in average education outcomes. Using the available data, the paper shows that a doubling of government spending per child led to an increase in learning-adjusted years of schooling of only half a year. Preliminary findings also show that countries with lower efficiency and spending are expected to get the most from increases in spending in improved education outcomes. The paper concludes by outlining an approach that allows countries to assess their potential for increasing education funding and the expected effects on their education outcomes, based on benchmarks drawing from the data of comparable countries. It also underscores the urgent need to improve data on public education spending and education outcomes, to extend this analysis to cover a wider set of countries and increase the robustness of country-level benchmarks.

Economic Growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Education --- Education Finance --- Education Outcomes --- Educational Sciences --- Fiscal Space --- Industrial Economics --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Primary Education --- Public Education Spending --- Public Sector Development --- Secondary Education

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This how-to note focuses on the management of the fiscal costs associated with natural disaster risks. Unlike other types of fiscal risks (for example, unexpected macroeconomic changes or materialization of contingent liabilities), a natural disaster presents a unique challenge to fiscal risk-management and budget processes because of its exogenous nature and potentially overwhelming scale. This note discusses how governments can build fiscal resilience against natural hazards and strengthen fiscal management after a disaster, including through budgeting frameworks and other fiscal policies. The note aims to answer three central questions: How large should fiscal buffers be? How should fiscal buffers be built up? How should fiscal buffers be used efficiently and transparently once a natural disaster has struck? These three questions directly relate to fiscal policy, fiscal risk management, and the budget process—all core areas of IMF expertise. To address them, the note focuses on fiscal strategies for financing recovery efforts and considers approaches to mitigate disaster impact. The note also provides guidance on how to conduct regular risk analyses of natural disasters’ potential fiscal consequences and outlines best practices for defining and accounting for the contingent liabilities associated with natural disasters in budgeting frameworks. Finally, the note touches on approaches for risk reduction, disaster risk financing strategies, and risk transfer mechanisms, such as various insurance instruments.

Budget planning and preparation --- Budget Systems --- Budget --- Budgeting & financial management --- Budgeting --- Climate --- Environment --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal risks --- Fiscal space --- Global Warming --- Macroeconomics --- National Budget --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Natural Disasters --- Natural disasters --- Public Administration --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- New Zealand

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This paper discusses Mali’s 2005 Article IV Consultation and Second and Third Reviews Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). The PRGF-supported program is broadly on track. Performance on quantitative aspects remains strong. Although the record on the structural program has been disappointing, the program for 2006 would mark significant progress on addressing key challenges. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the second and third reviews under the arrangement and waivers for nonobservance of three structural performance criteria.

Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Social Services and Welfare --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Fiscal Policy --- Agriculture: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- International economics --- Social welfare & social services --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- Poverty reduction strategy --- Agricultural commodities --- External debt --- Fiscal space --- Poverty --- Commodities --- Fiscal policy --- Poverty reduction --- Debts, External --- Farm produce --- Prices --- Mali

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In this note, the authors reexamine the issue of debt sustainability in a large group of advanced economies. Their hypothesis is that, when debt is in a moderate range, its dynamics are sustainable in the sense that increases in debt elicit sufficient increases in primary fiscal balances to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio. At high debt levels, however, the dynamics may turn unstable, and the debt ratio may not converge to a finite level. Such a framework allows the authors to define a “debt limit” that is consistent with a country’s historical track record of adjustment in the sense that, without an extraordinary fiscal effort, any debt increment beyond this limit would cause debt to increase without bound. This debt limit is not an absolute and immutable barrier, however, but rather defines a critical point above which a country’s normal fiscal response to rising debt becomes insufficient to maintain debt sustainability. Nor should this debt limit be interpreted as being in any sense the optimal level of public debt. Indeed, since this limit delineates the point at which fiscal solvency is called into question—and the analysis abstracts entirely from liquidity/rollover risk—prudence dictates that countries will typically want to be well below their debt limit. Given a country’s normal pattern of adjustment, “fiscal space” is then simply the difference between its debt limit and its current level of debt.

Poverty --- Social Science --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Deficit Surplus --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal stance --- Fiscal space --- Public debt --- Debt limits --- Market interest rates --- Fiscal policy --- Asset and liability management --- Financial services --- Debts, Public --- Interest rates --- United States