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Book
On the Predictability of Growth
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries. This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification.


Book
Sustainable Development Goals Diagnostics : An Application of Network Theory and Complexity Measures to Set Country Priorities
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Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The United Nations 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals are comprehensive and holistic in nature, as they includes 17 goals and 169 targets covering economic, social, and environmental dimensions of development. In this context, policy makers face the challenge of translating the global agenda into feasible yet ambitious development plans and policies. This paper presents a methodology that can assist policy makers in prioritizing the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals within their development plans, given elements of path dependency among the goals. The method used is based on the notion that existing patterns of development outcomes can reveal information about the commonalities in countries' unobservable Sustainable Development Goal delivery mechanisms. The ease with which capacities can be used between Sustainable Development Goals depends on their degree of commonality, conceptualized in the proximity between them. Related to this, the paper introduces Sustainable Development Goal centrality as a measure of connectedness. In addition, it defines a country's Sustainable Development Goals density to indicate how close an "unsuccessful" Sustainable Development Goals is to those Sustainable Development Goals in which a country is performing well. The paper concludes that countries should prioritize the Sustainable Development Goals that are within reach (high density) and/or offer higher scope for success through redeployment of existing capacities (high centrality). It applies the method to show how this can help countries prioritize implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals.


Book
Complexity in Economic and Social Systems
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Basel, Switzerland MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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There is no term that better describes the essential features of human society than complexity. On various levels, from the decision-making processes of individuals, through to the interactions between individuals leading to the spontaneous formation of groups and social hierarchies, up to the collective, herding processes that reshape whole societies, all these features share the property of irreducibility, i.e., they require a holistic, multi-level approach formed by researchers from different disciplines. This Special Issue aims to collect research studies that, by exploiting the latest advances in physics, economics, complex networks, and data science, make a step towards understanding these economic and social systems. The majority of submissions are devoted to financial market analysis and modeling, including the stock and cryptocurrency markets in the COVID-19 pandemic, systemic risk quantification and control, wealth condensation, the innovation-related performance of companies, and more. Looking more at societies, there are papers that deal with regional development, land speculation, and the-fake news-fighting strategies, the issues which are of central interest in contemporary society. On top of this, one of the contributions proposes a new, improved complexity measure.

Keywords

Information technology industries --- volatility clustering --- Baidu Index --- information demand --- generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (GARCH) --- mixture of distribution hypothesis --- speculation --- land acquisition --- motivation --- real estate --- development --- Ethiopia --- systemic risk --- macroprudential policy --- agent-based modelling --- inequality --- central-banking --- information transfer --- transfer entropy --- stock markets --- econophysics --- complexity science --- information theory --- economic complexity --- evolutionary dynamics --- network theory --- leveraged trading --- stock price crash risk --- threshold effect --- complexity in stock market --- entropy economics --- non-extensive cross-entropy econometrics --- non-ergodic ill-behaved inverse problems --- general system theory --- non-linear dynamics --- complex adaptive systems --- homo oeconomicus --- edge of chaos --- complexity economics --- pricing constraint --- IPO timing --- dynamic game model --- real option --- complexity of IPOs --- financial institution --- complex network --- jump volatility --- entropy weight TOPSIS --- structural entropy --- stock market --- EMD --- cluster-entropy --- Shannon-entropy --- financial markets --- time series --- dynamics --- Tsallis entropy --- copula functions --- cross-shareholding network --- finance --- cryptocurrencies --- multivariate transfer entropy --- complex networks --- liquidity proxy --- liquidity benchmark --- volatility estimate --- correlation coefficient --- partial determination --- mutual information --- forecasting market risk --- value at risk --- extreme returns --- peaks over threshold --- self-exciting point process --- discrete-time models --- generalized Pareto distribution --- dynamical complexity --- universal complexity measure --- irreversible processes --- entropies --- entropic susceptibilities --- complex systems --- multifractal analysis --- detrended cross-correlations --- minimal spanning tree --- wealth condensation --- agent-based computational economics --- bargaining --- gain function --- macroeconomics --- innovative activity --- manufacturing industry --- conjunctural movements --- cybernetics --- feedback loops --- correspondence analysis --- Polish Green Island effect --- Red Queen effect --- Kondratieff waves --- power law --- Zipf law --- gender productivity gap --- fake news --- rumor spreading --- Nash equilibrium --- evolutionarily stable strategies --- evolutionary information search dynamics --- nonlinear dynamics --- chaos --- time series analysis --- stock exchange market --- Lyapunov --- recurrence plots --- BDS --- correlation dimension --- GARCH model --- measure of economic development --- websites --- public administration sector --- municipality --- four-colour theorem --- prosumption --- platforms for participation --- location quotient --- dual graph --- Euler characteristic --- volatility clustering --- Baidu Index --- information demand --- generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (GARCH) --- mixture of distribution hypothesis --- speculation --- land acquisition --- motivation --- real estate --- development --- Ethiopia --- systemic risk --- macroprudential policy --- agent-based modelling --- inequality --- central-banking --- information transfer --- transfer entropy --- stock markets --- econophysics --- complexity science --- information theory --- economic complexity --- evolutionary dynamics --- network theory --- leveraged trading --- stock price crash risk --- threshold effect --- complexity in stock market --- entropy economics --- non-extensive cross-entropy econometrics --- non-ergodic ill-behaved inverse problems --- general system theory --- non-linear dynamics --- complex adaptive systems --- homo oeconomicus --- edge of chaos --- complexity economics --- pricing constraint --- IPO timing --- dynamic game model --- real option --- complexity of IPOs --- financial institution --- complex network --- jump volatility --- entropy weight TOPSIS --- structural entropy --- stock market --- EMD --- cluster-entropy --- Shannon-entropy --- financial markets --- time series --- dynamics --- Tsallis entropy --- copula functions --- cross-shareholding network --- finance --- cryptocurrencies --- multivariate transfer entropy --- complex networks --- liquidity proxy --- liquidity benchmark --- volatility estimate --- correlation coefficient --- partial determination --- mutual information --- forecasting market risk --- value at risk --- extreme returns --- peaks over threshold --- self-exciting point process --- discrete-time models --- generalized Pareto distribution --- dynamical complexity --- universal complexity measure --- irreversible processes --- entropies --- entropic susceptibilities --- complex systems --- multifractal analysis --- detrended cross-correlations --- minimal spanning tree --- wealth condensation --- agent-based computational economics --- bargaining --- gain function --- macroeconomics --- innovative activity --- manufacturing industry --- conjunctural movements --- cybernetics --- feedback loops --- correspondence analysis --- Polish Green Island effect --- Red Queen effect --- Kondratieff waves --- power law --- Zipf law --- gender productivity gap --- fake news --- rumor spreading --- Nash equilibrium --- evolutionarily stable strategies --- evolutionary information search dynamics --- nonlinear dynamics --- chaos --- time series analysis --- stock exchange market --- Lyapunov --- recurrence plots --- BDS --- correlation dimension --- GARCH model --- measure of economic development --- websites --- public administration sector --- municipality --- four-colour theorem --- prosumption --- platforms for participation --- location quotient --- dual graph --- Euler characteristic


Book
Complexity in Economic and Social Systems
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Basel, Switzerland MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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Abstract

There is no term that better describes the essential features of human society than complexity. On various levels, from the decision-making processes of individuals, through to the interactions between individuals leading to the spontaneous formation of groups and social hierarchies, up to the collective, herding processes that reshape whole societies, all these features share the property of irreducibility, i.e., they require a holistic, multi-level approach formed by researchers from different disciplines. This Special Issue aims to collect research studies that, by exploiting the latest advances in physics, economics, complex networks, and data science, make a step towards understanding these economic and social systems. The majority of submissions are devoted to financial market analysis and modeling, including the stock and cryptocurrency markets in the COVID-19 pandemic, systemic risk quantification and control, wealth condensation, the innovation-related performance of companies, and more. Looking more at societies, there are papers that deal with regional development, land speculation, and the-fake news-fighting strategies, the issues which are of central interest in contemporary society. On top of this, one of the contributions proposes a new, improved complexity measure.

Keywords

volatility clustering --- Baidu Index --- information demand --- generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (GARCH) --- mixture of distribution hypothesis --- speculation --- land acquisition --- motivation --- real estate --- development --- Ethiopia --- systemic risk --- macroprudential policy --- agent-based modelling --- inequality --- central-banking --- information transfer --- transfer entropy --- stock markets --- econophysics --- complexity science --- information theory --- economic complexity --- evolutionary dynamics --- network theory --- leveraged trading --- stock price crash risk --- threshold effect --- complexity in stock market --- entropy economics --- non-extensive cross-entropy econometrics --- non-ergodic ill-behaved inverse problems --- general system theory --- non-linear dynamics --- complex adaptive systems --- homo oeconomicus --- edge of chaos --- complexity economics --- pricing constraint --- IPO timing --- dynamic game model --- real option --- complexity of IPOs --- financial institution --- complex network --- jump volatility --- entropy weight TOPSIS --- structural entropy --- stock market --- EMD --- cluster-entropy --- Shannon-entropy --- financial markets --- time series --- dynamics --- Tsallis entropy --- copula functions --- cross-shareholding network --- finance --- cryptocurrencies --- multivariate transfer entropy --- complex networks --- liquidity proxy --- liquidity benchmark --- volatility estimate --- correlation coefficient --- partial determination --- mutual information --- forecasting market risk --- value at risk --- extreme returns --- peaks over threshold --- self-exciting point process --- discrete-time models --- generalized Pareto distribution --- dynamical complexity --- universal complexity measure --- irreversible processes --- entropies --- entropic susceptibilities --- complex systems --- multifractal analysis --- detrended cross-correlations --- minimal spanning tree --- wealth condensation --- agent-based computational economics --- bargaining --- gain function --- macroeconomics --- innovative activity --- manufacturing industry --- conjunctural movements --- cybernetics --- feedback loops --- correspondence analysis --- Polish Green Island effect --- Red Queen effect --- Kondratieff waves --- power law --- Zipf law --- gender productivity gap --- fake news --- rumor spreading --- Nash equilibrium --- evolutionarily stable strategies --- evolutionary information search dynamics --- nonlinear dynamics --- chaos --- time series analysis --- stock exchange market --- Lyapunov --- recurrence plots --- BDS --- correlation dimension --- GARCH model --- measure of economic development --- websites --- public administration sector --- municipality --- four-colour theorem --- prosumption --- platforms for participation --- location quotient --- dual graph --- Euler characteristic --- n/a


Book
Three Risky Decades: A Time for Econophysics?
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Basel MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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Abstract

Our Special Issue we publish at a turning point, which we have not dealt with since World War II. The interconnected long-term global shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and catastrophic climate change have imposed significant humanitary, socio-economic, political, and environmental restrictions on the globalization process and all aspects of economic and social life including the existence of individual people. The planet is trapped—the current situation seems to be the prelude to an apocalypse whose long-term effects we will have for decades. Therefore, it urgently requires a concept of the planet's survival to be built—only on this basis can the conditions for its development be created. The Special Issue gives evidence of the state of econophysics before the current situation. Therefore, it can provide excellent econophysics or an inter-and cross-disciplinary starting point of a rational approach to a new era.

Keywords

energy --- economic growth --- output elasticities --- entropy production --- emissions --- optimization --- speculative attacks --- currency crisis --- neural networks --- deep learning --- Quantum-Inspired Neural Network --- traveling salesman problem --- simulated annealing technique --- kinetic exchange model --- Gini index --- Kolkata index --- minority game --- Kolkata Paise Restaurant problem --- time series analysis --- cross-correlations --- power law classification scheme --- network analysis --- globalisation --- entropy --- portfolio optimization --- regularization --- renormalization --- econophysics --- highway freight transportation --- radiation model --- transportation network --- network diversity --- power law --- economic development --- decision-making --- bounded rationality --- complexity economics --- information-theory --- maximum entropy principle --- quantal response statistical equilibrium --- correlation coefficient --- detrended cross-correlation analysis --- COVID-19 --- mobility indices --- random geometry --- risk measurement --- disordered systems --- replica theory --- return distributions --- power-law tails --- stretched exponentials --- q-Gaussians --- financial markets --- financial complexity --- collective intelligence --- emergent property --- stock correlation --- lexical evolution of econophysics --- text as data --- correspondence analysis --- long-range memory --- 1/f noise --- absolute value estimator --- anomalous diffusion --- ARFIMA --- first-passage times --- fractional Lèvy stable motion --- Higuchi’s method --- mean squared displacement --- multiplicative point process --- correlation filtering --- minimal spanning tree --- planar maximally filtered graph --- topological data analysis --- SGX --- TAIEX --- complex systems --- ecological economics --- urban–regional economics --- income distribution --- financial market dynamics --- income tax --- tax deduction --- income redistribution --- government transfer --- government dependency --- poverty line --- basic income guarantee --- effective tax rate --- balanced budget --- elastic tax --- Cantor set --- fractals --- homeomorphism --- detrended fluctuation analysis --- Hurst exponent --- continuous time random walk --- intertrade times --- volatility clustering --- local transfer entropy --- long-short-term-memory --- Bitcoin --- cryptocurrencies --- multiscale analysis --- detrended cross-correlations --- covariance matrices --- copulas --- high-frequency trading --- market stability --- agent-based models --- structural entropy --- Economic Freedom of the World index --- Index of Economic Freedom --- rank-size law technique --- power law behaviour --- exponential behaviour --- multiscale partition function --- multifractal analysis --- company market --- export readiness --- internationalization --- options pricing --- mortality --- companies --- start-up --- FTSE100 --- Gompertz --- MinMax --- survival probability distribution --- high-frequency trader --- multivariate Hawkes process --- forex market --- wealth distribution --- kinetic models --- wealth inequalities --- compartmental epidemic modelling --- vaccination campaign --- flash crash --- systemic risk --- financial networks --- high frequency trading --- market microstructure --- phase transition --- criticality --- dynamics of complex networks --- cascading failure --- network science --- economic complexity --- relatedness --- products and services --- planar graph --- partial correlation --- discounting --- bond pricing --- real interest rates --- calendar anomalies --- day-of-the-week effect --- market indices --- multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis --- n/a --- fractional Lèvy stable motion --- Higuchi's method --- urban-regional economics


Book
Three Risky Decades: A Time for Econophysics?
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Basel MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

Loading...
Export citation

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Bookmark

Abstract

Our Special Issue we publish at a turning point, which we have not dealt with since World War II. The interconnected long-term global shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and catastrophic climate change have imposed significant humanitary, socio-economic, political, and environmental restrictions on the globalization process and all aspects of economic and social life including the existence of individual people. The planet is trapped—the current situation seems to be the prelude to an apocalypse whose long-term effects we will have for decades. Therefore, it urgently requires a concept of the planet's survival to be built—only on this basis can the conditions for its development be created. The Special Issue gives evidence of the state of econophysics before the current situation. Therefore, it can provide excellent econophysics or an inter-and cross-disciplinary starting point of a rational approach to a new era.

Keywords

Research & information: general --- Mathematics & science --- energy --- economic growth --- output elasticities --- entropy production --- emissions --- optimization --- speculative attacks --- currency crisis --- neural networks --- deep learning --- Quantum-Inspired Neural Network --- traveling salesman problem --- simulated annealing technique --- kinetic exchange model --- Gini index --- Kolkata index --- minority game --- Kolkata Paise Restaurant problem --- time series analysis --- cross-correlations --- power law classification scheme --- network analysis --- globalisation --- entropy --- portfolio optimization --- regularization --- renormalization --- econophysics --- highway freight transportation --- radiation model --- transportation network --- network diversity --- power law --- economic development --- decision-making --- bounded rationality --- complexity economics --- information-theory --- maximum entropy principle --- quantal response statistical equilibrium --- correlation coefficient --- detrended cross-correlation analysis --- COVID-19 --- mobility indices --- random geometry --- risk measurement --- disordered systems --- replica theory --- return distributions --- power-law tails --- stretched exponentials --- q-Gaussians --- financial markets --- financial complexity --- collective intelligence --- emergent property --- stock correlation --- lexical evolution of econophysics --- text as data --- correspondence analysis --- long-range memory --- 1/f noise --- absolute value estimator --- anomalous diffusion --- ARFIMA --- first-passage times --- fractional Lèvy stable motion --- Higuchi's method --- mean squared displacement --- multiplicative point process --- correlation filtering --- minimal spanning tree --- planar maximally filtered graph --- topological data analysis --- SGX --- TAIEX --- complex systems --- ecological economics --- urban-regional economics --- income distribution --- financial market dynamics --- income tax --- tax deduction --- income redistribution --- government transfer --- government dependency --- poverty line --- basic income guarantee --- effective tax rate --- balanced budget --- elastic tax --- Cantor set --- fractals --- homeomorphism --- detrended fluctuation analysis --- Hurst exponent --- continuous time random walk --- intertrade times --- volatility clustering --- local transfer entropy --- long-short-term-memory --- Bitcoin --- cryptocurrencies --- multiscale analysis --- detrended cross-correlations --- covariance matrices --- copulas --- high-frequency trading --- market stability --- agent-based models --- structural entropy --- Economic Freedom of the World index --- Index of Economic Freedom --- rank-size law technique --- power law behaviour --- exponential behaviour --- multiscale partition function --- multifractal analysis --- company market --- export readiness --- internationalization --- options pricing --- mortality --- companies --- start-up --- FTSE100 --- Gompertz --- MinMax --- survival probability distribution --- high-frequency trader --- multivariate Hawkes process --- forex market --- wealth distribution --- kinetic models --- wealth inequalities --- compartmental epidemic modelling --- vaccination campaign --- flash crash --- systemic risk --- financial networks --- high frequency trading --- market microstructure --- phase transition --- criticality --- dynamics of complex networks --- cascading failure --- network science --- economic complexity --- relatedness --- products and services --- planar graph --- partial correlation --- discounting --- bond pricing --- real interest rates --- calendar anomalies --- day-of-the-week effect --- market indices --- multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis --- energy --- economic growth --- output elasticities --- entropy production --- emissions --- optimization --- speculative attacks --- currency crisis --- neural networks --- deep learning --- Quantum-Inspired Neural Network --- traveling salesman problem --- simulated annealing technique --- kinetic exchange model --- Gini index --- Kolkata index --- minority game --- Kolkata Paise Restaurant problem --- time series analysis --- cross-correlations --- power law classification scheme --- network analysis --- globalisation --- entropy --- portfolio optimization --- regularization --- renormalization --- econophysics --- highway freight transportation --- radiation model --- transportation network --- network diversity --- power law --- economic development --- decision-making --- bounded rationality --- complexity economics --- information-theory --- maximum entropy principle --- quantal response statistical equilibrium --- correlation coefficient --- detrended cross-correlation analysis --- COVID-19 --- mobility indices --- random geometry --- risk measurement --- disordered systems --- replica theory --- return distributions --- power-law tails --- stretched exponentials --- q-Gaussians --- financial markets --- financial complexity --- collective intelligence --- emergent property --- stock correlation --- lexical evolution of econophysics --- text as data --- correspondence analysis --- long-range memory --- 1/f noise --- absolute value estimator --- anomalous diffusion --- ARFIMA --- first-passage times --- fractional Lèvy stable motion --- Higuchi's method --- mean squared displacement --- multiplicative point process --- correlation filtering --- minimal spanning tree --- planar maximally filtered graph --- topological data analysis --- SGX --- TAIEX --- complex systems --- ecological economics --- urban-regional economics --- income distribution --- financial market dynamics --- income tax --- tax deduction --- income redistribution --- government transfer --- government dependency --- poverty line --- basic income guarantee --- effective tax rate --- balanced budget --- elastic tax --- Cantor set --- fractals --- homeomorphism --- detrended fluctuation analysis --- Hurst exponent --- continuous time random walk --- intertrade times --- volatility clustering --- local transfer entropy --- long-short-term-memory --- Bitcoin --- cryptocurrencies --- multiscale analysis --- detrended cross-correlations --- covariance matrices --- copulas --- high-frequency trading --- market stability --- agent-based models --- structural entropy --- Economic Freedom of the World index --- Index of Economic Freedom --- rank-size law technique --- power law behaviour --- exponential behaviour --- multiscale partition function --- multifractal analysis --- company market --- export readiness --- internationalization --- options pricing --- mortality --- companies --- start-up --- FTSE100 --- Gompertz --- MinMax --- survival probability distribution --- high-frequency trader --- multivariate Hawkes process --- forex market --- wealth distribution --- kinetic models --- wealth inequalities --- compartmental epidemic modelling --- vaccination campaign --- flash crash --- systemic risk --- financial networks --- high frequency trading --- market microstructure --- phase transition --- criticality --- dynamics of complex networks --- cascading failure --- network science --- economic complexity --- relatedness --- products and services --- planar graph --- partial correlation --- discounting --- bond pricing --- real interest rates --- calendar anomalies --- day-of-the-week effect --- market indices --- multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis

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