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This paper studies whether FDI firms employ more workers than domestic firms for each dollar of assets. Using the Orbis database and its ownership structure information, we show that, in most economies, domestic firms tend to employ more workers per asset than FDI firms. The result remains robust across individual industries in the case study of the United Kingdom. The analysis of the switchers (ownership changes from domestic to foreign or vice versa) suggests that ownership changes do not have an immediate impact on the employment per asset. This result suggests that different patterns of employment per asset seem to come from technological differences rather than from different ownership structures.
Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Labor --- Public Finance --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- International Financial Markets --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Foreign direct investment --- Public expenditure review --- Special purpose vehicle --- Balance of payments --- Expenditure --- Asset and liability management --- Investments, Foreign --- Economic theory --- Expenditures, Public --- Asset-liability management --- United Kingdom
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This paper studies whether FDI firms employ more workers than domestic firms for each dollar of assets. Using the Orbis database and its ownership structure information, we show that, in most economies, domestic firms tend to employ more workers per asset than FDI firms. The result remains robust across individual industries in the case study of the United Kingdom. The analysis of the switchers (ownership changes from domestic to foreign or vice versa) suggests that ownership changes do not have an immediate impact on the employment per asset. This result suggests that different patterns of employment per asset seem to come from technological differences rather than from different ownership structures.
United Kingdom --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Labor --- Public Finance --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- International Financial Markets --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Foreign direct investment --- Public expenditure review --- Special purpose vehicle --- Balance of payments --- Expenditure --- Asset and liability management --- Investments, Foreign --- Economic theory --- Expenditures, Public --- Asset-liability management
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This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an unanticipated increase in public debt on the real GDP level is generally negative and varies depending on other fundamental characteristics. Specifically, an unanticipated increase in the public debt to GDP ratio hurts real GDP level for countries that have (i) a high initial debt level or (ii) a rising debt trajectory over the five preceding years. On the contrary, an unanticipated increase in public debt boosts real GDP for countries that have (iii) a low-income level or (iv) completed the HIPC debt relief initiative.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Financial Risk Management --- Exports and Imports --- International Factor Movements and International Business: General --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Finance: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- International economics --- Public debt --- Debt relief --- Asset and liability management --- External debt --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Mongolia
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This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an unanticipated increase in public debt on the real GDP level is generally negative and varies depending on other fundamental characteristics. Specifically, an unanticipated increase in the public debt to GDP ratio hurts real GDP level for countries that have (i) a high initial debt level or (ii) a rising debt trajectory over the five preceding years. On the contrary, an unanticipated increase in public debt boosts real GDP for countries that have (iii) a low-income level or (iv) completed the HIPC debt relief initiative.
Mongolia --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Financial Risk Management --- Exports and Imports --- International Factor Movements and International Business: General --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Finance: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- International economics --- Public debt --- Debt relief --- Asset and liability management --- External debt --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External
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After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Foreign Exchange --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Commodity Markets --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Food prices --- Commodity price shocks --- Energy prices --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Bosnia and Herzegovina
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The paper evaluates the key drivers of fiscal crises in a sample of countries from all three income groups—advanced, emerging, and low-income countries, using fiscal crisis data recently developed by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. The empirical study focuses on three questions: (1) How does the composition of debtholders (domestic vs. foreign, resident vs. non-resident, or official vs. non-official) affect the probability of a fiscal crisis, after controlling for the level of public debt and other relevant variables?; (2) How does the development and size of the domestic financial sector affect the probability of a fiscal crisis?; and (3) How do changes in the debt level affect the probability of a fiscal crisis, for given compositions of the sovereign debt investor base and different levels of development and size of domestic financial markets? Our findings confirm the benefits of financial development, the danger of heavy reliance on a non-resident investor base, and also that emerging market economies have a lower debt carrying capacity compared to the full sample.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- International Factor Movements and International Business: General --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Finance: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Crises --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Public debt --- Financial sector development --- Financial markets --- Capital markets --- Financial crises --- Nonbank financial institutions --- Financial institutions --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Debts, Public --- Financial services industry --- Capital market
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After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Bosnia and Herzegovina --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Foreign Exchange --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Commodity Markets --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Food prices --- Commodity price shocks --- Energy prices --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics
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The paper evaluates the key drivers of fiscal crises in a sample of countries from all three income groups—advanced, emerging, and low-income countries, using fiscal crisis data recently developed by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. The empirical study focuses on three questions: (1) How does the composition of debtholders (domestic vs. foreign, resident vs. non-resident, or official vs. non-official) affect the probability of a fiscal crisis, after controlling for the level of public debt and other relevant variables?; (2) How does the development and size of the domestic financial sector affect the probability of a fiscal crisis?; and (3) How do changes in the debt level affect the probability of a fiscal crisis, for given compositions of the sovereign debt investor base and different levels of development and size of domestic financial markets? Our findings confirm the benefits of financial development, the danger of heavy reliance on a non-resident investor base, and also that emerging market economies have a lower debt carrying capacity compared to the full sample.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- International Factor Movements and International Business: General --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Finance: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Crises --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Public debt --- Financial sector development --- Financial markets --- Capital markets --- Financial crises --- Nonbank financial institutions --- Financial institutions --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Debts, Public --- Financial services industry --- Capital market
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