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2023 (4)

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Book
Developing a Community-Led Certification Process for Facility Power Outage Resilience: Findings from a Massachusetts Pilot Study
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Year: 2022 Publisher: RAND Corporation

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Abstract

With an increase in the climate change-linked frequency and intensity of severe weather events that affect electric distribution infrastructure, there is an urgent need to define power outage resilience and identify methods to assess and certify whether and how planning actions and project implementations have made communities more resilient. Accordingly, the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center initiated the Clean Energy and Resiliency (CLEAR) program to provide technical services to nine community sites in the commonwealth, which formed the basis of a convenience sample for this study. A RAND team-comprising Converge Strategies, XENDEE, and Ridgeline Energy Analytics-conducted stakeholder interviews and a literature review to articulate power outage resilience metrics, piloted a certification program, and used focus groups to assess pathways to the CLEAR program's operationalization and administration.

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Barriers to the Commercialization and Adoption of New Underground Coal Mining Technologies in the United States
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: RAND Corporation

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The Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act (MINER Act) of 2006 charged the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) with expediting the development and commercial availability of new safety technologies for underground coal mining. NIOSH has facilitated the development of numerous new technologies but has observed that the commercialization and widespread adoption of technologies face formidable barriers. This report presents results of a project characterizing barriers to the development, commercialization, and adoption of new technologies for use in underground coal mining in the United States. The authors of this report interviewed representatives of a sample of organizations that have a stake in the U.S. underground coal mining market and held a workshop with selected stakeholders to refine and prioritize the barriers and to identify solutions to them. Through the interviews, the authors identified and characterized 24 barriers falling into three groups (economic, regulatory, and other) and several subgroups within each group. The workshop prioritized barriers according to perceived frequency of occurrence and magnitude of impact. The individual barriers span a variety of specific issues. Most barriers have the effect of dissuading suppliers from developing new technologies, updating existing technologies, or even entering or remaining in the underground coal mining market at all. Solutions proposed in the workshop centered on streamlining the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) approval process, modernizing MSHA standards, increasing stakeholder interaction in efforts to update mining technology and the associated regulatory regime, and increasing federal support for mining technology.

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Book
Equity Metrics for Climate Adaptation in the Electricity Sector
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Social equity has become a key concern among public agencies. In 2020, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) adopted D. 20-08-046, Decision on Energy Utility Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments and Climate Adaptation in Disadvantaged Communities. This ruling requires utilities to engage disadvantaged communities and assess their vulnerability to climate impacts. It also requires utilities to evaluate how their climate adaptation efforts can promote equity. Southern California Edison (SCE), the sponsor of this work, is one of several investor-owned utilities regulated by the CPUC that must adhere to this rulemaking. The authors developed an illustrative set of context-specific equity metrics that SCE could build on and incorporate into its ongoing work toward climate adaptation. These metrics can help inform utility regulators and electricity utilities as they begin grappling with energy equity. It offers a straightforward methodology and a starting set of equity metrics that are intended to be adapted to different contexts.

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Book
Implementing Variable Cost Pricing in the Transportation Working Capital Fund
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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In Independent Evaluation of the Transportation Working Capital Fund, RAND researchers reviewed the Transportation Working Capital Fund (TWCF) to meet the requirements of Section 1716 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020. They recommended that U.S. Transportation Command implement variable cost pricing for several business lines that are financed by the TWCF. The business and economics literature emphasizes variable cost pricing as the best way to guide customer decisionmaking to support enterprise objectives. In the variable cost pricing model, customers pay for the costs to the defense transportation system associated with their requirements (variable costs); other costs should be recovered separately through appropriations or service-level bills. In this companion report, researchers identify next steps toward implementing variable cost pricing for selected TWCF business lines. These business lines include Air Mobility Command's Channel Cargo, Channel Passenger, Special Assignment Airlift Mission/Contingency, and Joint Exercise Training Program business lines; U.S. Military Surface Deployment and Distribution Command's Liner Operations and Port Operations business lines; and Military Sealift Command's Army and Air Force Prepositioned Ships business lines.

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Independent Evaluation of the Transportation Working Capital Fund: Assessment and Recommendations to Improve Effectiveness and Efficiency
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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U.S. Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) manages the Defense Transportation System, which provides peacetime transport for U.S. Department of Defense customers and maintains surge capacity required for wartime needs to project and sustain military power. Most of USTRANSCOM's operations are funded by the Transportation Working Capital Fund (TWCF). The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020 created a requirement for an independent review of the TWCF, with the purpose of assessing the TWCF's current structure and offering recommendations to improve the fund's effectiveness and efficiency through changes to its cost-recovery structure. This report describes that review. The authors found that improvements to the TWCF are possible. Specific recommendations vary by USTRANSCOM line of business, but, overall, the authors recommend adopting a Variable Cost Pricing model. This model, preferred in the business and economics literature as the best way to guide customer decisionmaking to support enterprise objectives, suggests that customers should pay for the costs that they impose on the system (variable costs) and that other costs should be recovered separately from rates for movements. For most business lines, this model preserves the workload that USTRANSCOM relies on to generate readiness while improving cost-control incentives for both USTRANSCOM and its customers. However, a more detailed analysis of USTRANSCOM business processes, information systems, and personnel requirements is needed to inform implementation decisions.

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A Risk Assessment of National Critical Functions During COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities

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The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) was tasked with using the National Risk Management Center's (NRMC's) National Critical Function (NCF) risk assessment framework to assess risk to each NCF and complete individual risk analyses for the 55 NCFs. The NRMC also requested that HSOAC perform additional tasks, including providing a report on emerging lessons learned from risk management efforts to limit the impact and disruption that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had on the 55 NCFs. This report presents insights into best practices in risk assessment; challenges in the implementation of the NCF risk assessment framework to characterize risk to critical infrastructure associated with the COVID-19 pandemic; recommendations for improving the framework; and suggestions for further characterization of NCFs' interdependence, vulnerability, and geographic variation that could improve risk assessment processes.

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Assessing Risk to the National Critical Functions As a Result of Climate Change.
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2022 Publisher: Santa Monica : RAND Corporation, The,

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National Critical Functions (NCFs) are government and private-sector functions so vital that their disruption would debilitate security, the economy, public health, or safety. Researchers developed a risk management framework to assess and manage the risk that climate change poses to the NCFs and use the framework to assess 27 priority NCFs. This report details the risk assessment portions of the framework. The team assessed risk based on a scale that the National Risk Management Center uses that ranges from a rating of 1 (no disruption or normal operations) to 5 (critical disruption on a national scale). A rating of 3 (moderate disruption) on the national level, although it still allows normal functioning on a national scale, should be regarded as highly significant and includes the potential for major disruptions or failure of NCFs at a local or regional level and for significant economic loss, health and safety impacts, and other consequences. Using this risk rating scale and projected changes in eight climate drivers identified in the analysis (flooding, sea-level rise, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, severe storm systems, extreme cold, extreme heat, wildfire, and drought), the researchers examined how NCFs could be affected by and at risk from climate change in three future time periods (by 2030, by 2050, and by 2100) and two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (current and high).


Book
Strategies to Mitigate the Risk to the National Critical Functions Generated by Climate Change

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One in a series examining the risks climate change presents to the United States, this report examines climate adaptation strategies for 25 National Critical Functions (NCFs) at greatest risk of disruption from climate change. Climate drivers include major weather events, such as hurricanes or floods, and the effects of sea-level rise or drought. The authors examined the adaptation strategies available, how to assess their effectiveness and feasibility, and what tools are available to assist with these efforts. The focus was on impact pathways — how climate change might disrupt an NCF — each of which is a combination of climate drivers (such as drought and flooding) and impact mechanisms (such as physical damage and workforce shortages) affecting a given NCF. The emphasis is on strategies that owner-operators—state, local, tribal, and territorial governments and private-sector stakeholders — of critical functions might implement to adapt to such climate risks.

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Optimizing Portfolio-Level Modernization Investment: An Overview of the Aim Point Investment Model (APIM)

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This report introduces the Aim Point Investment Model, an optimization model for portfolio-level resource allocation across U.S. Army programs and time. The report is intended to provide a technical overview of the model and its capabilities while also detailing the motivation for creating the model and recommendations from related research. The recommendations should be of interest to decisionmakers and those interested in improving decision support tools for asset allocation problems. In brief, the project's objective was to develop a method and tool to support quick-turn exploration of modernization investment portfolios in light of changing budget constraints and operational priorities in order to develop rough-order optimal investment strategies across a preestablished set of investment options and set of budget and requirement assumptions. Given the enormous complexity of the decision space, some sort of automated decision support tool was required. To develop that decision support tool, the authors explored alternative approaches to extracting the information needed about programs' relative utility and any constraints on the Army's ability to procure the capability from existing Army data sources. This report describes one of these approaches, which uses Army prioritization guidance—synthesized from several sources—combined with plausible constraints to produce resource allocation solutions that are consistent with the Army's stated modernization strategy.

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China's Global Energy Interconnection : Exploring the Security Implications of a Power Grid Developed and Governed by China

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In 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping endorsed a new initiative, known as the Global Energy Interconnection (GEI), that could help solve humanity's pressing energy and climate dilemmas through the development of a global power grid. The GEI would connect remote renewable sources of energy to global consumption centers using ultra-high-voltage power transmission lines spanning continents and smart technologies. This way, peak demand for electricity in the evening in eastern China, for example, could be met using solar power at noon in central Asia, matching supply and demand across countries and continents more efficiently. On paper, the proposal presents many benefits. However, concerns about China's intentions and the political, security, and economic implications of a China-led GEI also exist. The GEI is reminiscent of China's similar controversial initiatives to connect with the rest of the world in such sectors as telecommunications, port infrastructure, and rail. In this report, RAND researchers set out to advance knowledge on the GEI and to demystify the potential global security implications associated with this important but poorly understood initiative.

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