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Global poverty is becoming increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and among households engaged in subsistence agriculture in environments characterized by uncertainty. Understanding how to achieve sustainable increases in household incomes in this context is key to ending extreme poverty. Uganda offers important lessons in this regard. Uganda experienced conflict, drought, and price volatility in the decade from 2003 to 2013, while at the same time experiencing the second fastest percentage point reduction in extreme poverty per year in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study analyzes a nationally representative panel of 2,356 households visited four times between 2006 to 2012, in combination with data on conflict events, weather, and prices. The study describes the type of income growth households experienced and assesses the importance of these external events in determining progress. The study finds substantial growth in agricultural incomes, particularly among poorer households. Many of the gains in agricultural income growth came about because of good weather, peace, and prices, and not technological change or profound changes in agricultural production. Therefore, although overall progress during this period was good, there were years in which average income growth was negative. This was particularly the case in the poorer and more vulnerable Northern and Eastern regions, and thus their overall income growth was also slower.
Agriculture --- Environment --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Rural Development
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This paper estimates the profitability of fertilizer and hybrid seeds in Uganda, using agronomic evidence on the yield returns to inputs from experimental fields, as well as output price data from local markets between 2000 and 2012. The results suggest that the returns to fertilizer are positive across the entire price range for beans, maize, and matooke and positive for the top 75 percent of prices for coffee. Commonly available improved seed varieties for maize and beans increase gains by 32 percent on average. However, accounting for the quality of the inputs available to farmers in the market, the sizable positive returns become negative for most of the price distribution, possibly explaining the low adoption of inputs in Uganda. The paper also examines the impact of other factors that could affect input adoption, by using a relatively long panel data set spanning 12 years. The analysis finds evidence that enhanced access to economic markets and past weather conditions have small effects on input use, and positive correlations between the use of extension services and knowledge and input use.
Agricultural inputs --- Agriculture --- Climate change and agriculture --- Crops and crop management systems --- Farm inputs --- Fertilizer --- Financial returns --- Food security --- Hybrid seeds --- Hydrology --- Inequality --- Pest management --- Poverty reduction --- Seeds --- Water resources
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This paper uses the 2011 Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey to analyze the relationship between participation in the garment industry and household welfare. The analysis relies on propensity score matching estimators to investigate whether households that have at least one member employed in the textile and apparel sector are better off than those who do not participate in the garment industry, in terms of several monetary and non-monetary welfare indicators. The findings show that garment households are less likely to experience self-reported food insufficiency, and their children are more likely to be enrolled in school. Yet, the positive effect of the treatment is restricted to the bottom 40 percent of the consumption distribution, possibly due to the nature of garment jobs, and the fact that they represent an attractive alternative for the poorest households but not necessarily for the better-off. Using instrumental-variables, the analysis also shows that remittances originating from the textile and apparel sector relax household budget constraints, increasing expenditures in education, health, and investments in agricultural activities.
Garment --- Manufacturing --- Poverty --- Remittances --- Welfare
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This paper presents results from four simulations of the impact of potential tax reforms in Pakistan on poverty, shared prosperity, and inequality. The simulations are carried out in the context of a dynamic computational general equilibrium model that incorporates endogenous tax evasion. The simulations link the computational general equilibrium model to household survey data that are incorporated in a micro simulation model. The combined models suggest that equal yield increases in sales and corporate tax rates differ mildly in their impacts on consumption and poverty. Endogenously modeled tax evasion plays an important role in the results.
CGE Models --- Computable General Equilibrium Models --- Distributional Effects --- Tax Incidence --- Tax Reform --- Taxation
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Digital connectivity has been a critical mitigating factor for the adverse effects of lockdowns implemented in response to the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic on household welfare in Latin America and the Caribbean. Households with access to digital technologies were able to cope better with the shock. rates. More connected households also reported lower income losses, fewer instances of food insecurity and higher access to high quality remote learning. The Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has underlined the importance of ensuring that all segments of the population have access to digital technologies and of promoting digital skills throughout the lifecycle of individuals.
Access and Equity in Basic Education --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Digital Divide --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Education --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Inequality --- Information and Communication Technologies --- Information Technology --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction
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The most vulnerable households in Latin America and the Caribbean have been disproportionately affected by the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, endangering the region's inclusive development path. High-Frequency Phone Surveys show that two months into the pandemic, in May 2020, the gaps between the most vulnerable and the least vulnerable households in terms of job loss and income loss. The uneven impacts went beyond monetary indicators, as disadvantaged households suffered from higher levels of food insecurity and had lower access to good quality health and education services, such as online sessions with a teacher. To prevent the pandemic from erasing years of progress against inequality, the most vulnerable households require short-term support to overcome their liquidity constraints via safety net transfers, thus guaranteeing that their basic needs are met. In the medium term, government efforts should be focused on the recovery of households' primary source of income through labor market policies that actively support the placement of the less advantaged groups and improve their employability. Equally important, it is necessary to curb losses related to human capital accumulation, given the long-term consequences that this entails. The return to in-person schooling, under strict bio-security protocols, is encouraged. When not possible, schools and parents should be provided with better tools to support distance learning.
Access and Equity in Basic Education --- Access of Poor To Social Services --- Access To Education --- Access To Health Services --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Education --- Food Security --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Inequality --- Living Standards --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction
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Given the importance of labor income in the region, there are several important questions about the effects of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the labor market. At the outset of the pandemic, 48 percent of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) workers stopped working and 16 percent lost their job. Yet, were job losses similar for all workers? Has the COVID-19 shock exacerbated unfavorable labor market conditions for vulnerable groups over time? What happened to those workers who remained employed throughout the early months of the pandemic? And, what lessons can be drawn from the experience? This note sheds light on these inquiries using household data from the LAC high-frequency phone surveys (HFPS) which were collected between May and August of 2020 from 13 countries in the region.
Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Employment --- Employment and Unemployment --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Labor Market --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor
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This study analyzes the incidence of public revenues (tax collection) and expenditures (including direct and indirect transfers, indirect subsidies, and in-kind transfers) on the level of poverty and inequality in Uganda, using the internationally recognized methodology developed by the Commitment to Equity institute. The results show that Uganda's fiscal policy is moderately equalizing and lowers the Gini coefficient by 3.2 points. The personal income tax, followed by education in-kind transfers, are the biggest contributors to reducing inequality. Although equalizing, fiscal policy is poverty-inducing in Uganda. Direct transfers are pro-poor in distribution but are not large enough to counteract the purchasing power reductions from indirect taxes; the poverty headcount ratio increases by 2.3 percentage points. Going forward, the combination of raising additional revenue by broadening the personal income tax base and removing valued-added tax exemptions while using the additional resources to increase the size and coverage of pro-poor direct transfers programs may alleviate poverty and reduce inequality.
Distributional Impact --- Fiscal Incidence --- Fiscal Policy --- Gini Coefficient --- Household Surveys --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Poverty and Policy --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Expenditures --- Public Sector Development --- Subsidies --- Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies --- Transfers
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COVID-19 closures in Latin American and the Caribbean countries helped to curb the spread of the virus, but inevitably brought negative consequences for households, principally in the form of job losses, income reduction, and, in some cases, food insecurity. Future policy measures should aim to strike the right balance between saving lives and protecting livelihoods. Where closures are necessary, they should be adapted to a country's labor market and other localized conditions so as to minimize profound welfare losses. Governments should strive for robust and agile social safety net systems to be able to respond to the sudden falls in household welfare.
Access To Health Services --- Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Employment and Unemployment --- Food Security --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Public Health --- Public Health Promotion --- Social Protections and Assistance --- Social Protections and Labor
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