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Tracking poverty is predicated on the availability of comparable consumption data and reliable price deflators. However, regular series of strictly comparable data are only rarely available. Price deflators are also often missing or disputed. In response, poverty prediction methods that track consumption correlates as opposed to consumption itself have been developed. These methods typically assume that the estimated relation between consumption and its predictors is stable over time-an assumption that cannot usually be tested directly. This study analyzes the performance of poverty prediction models based on small area estimation techniques. Predicted poverty estimates are compared with directly observed levels in two country settings where data comparability over time is not a problem. Prediction models that employ either non-staple food or non-food expenditures or a full set of assets as predictors are found to yield poverty estimates that match observed poverty well. This offers some support to the use of such methods to approximate the evolution of poverty. Two further country examples illustrate how an application of the method employing models based on household assets can help to adjudicate between alternative price deflators.

Achieving Shared Growth --- Consumption Prediction --- Debt Markets --- Poverty Dynamics --- Poverty Reduction --- Price Deflator --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Small Area Estimation

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Movements in and out of poverty are of core interest to both policymakers and economists. Yet the panel data needed to analyze such movements are rare. In this paper, the authors build on the methodology used to construct poverty maps to show how repeated cross-sections of household survey data can allow inferences to be made about movements in and out of poverty. They illustrate that the method permits the estimation of bounds on mobility, and provide non-parametric and parametric approaches to obtaining these bounds. They test how well the method works on data sets for Vietnam and Indonesia where we are able to compare our method to true panel estimates. The results are sufficiently encouraging to offer the prospect of some limited, basic, insights into mobility and poverty duration in settings where historically it was judged that the data necessary for such analysis were unavailable.

Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mobility --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Science and Technology Development --- Statistical & Mathematical Sciences --- Synthetic Panels --- Transitory and Chronic Poverty

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This report assesses the effectiveness of China's industrial policies, using China's commercial aviation manufacturing industry as a case study. It evaluates China's efforts to create a national champion in this industry, and analyzes foreign manufacturers' efforts to protect key technologies when setting up production facilities there. It also offers policy options for foreign governments responding to Chinese policies.

China -- Economic policy -- 1976-. --- Fiscal policy -- China. --- Industrial policy -- China. --- Industrial policy.

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Opium trade --- Opium poppy growers --- Rural development --- Substance Abuse --- Social Welfare & Social Work --- Social Sciences --- Community development, Rural --- Development, Rural --- Integrated rural development --- Regional development --- Rehabilitation, Rural --- Rural community development --- Rural economic development --- Growers, Opium poppy --- Citizen participation --- Social aspects --- Agriculture and state --- Community development --- Economic development --- Regional planning --- Farmers --- Afghanistan --- Agriculture. --- A-fu-han --- Afeganistão --- Affganistan --- Affghanistan --- Afganistan --- Afġānistān Islāmī Jumhoryat --- Afganistėn --- Afganistėn Myslimėn Respublikė --- Afghānistān Islāmī Imārat --- Afghánská islámská republika --- Afghanstan --- Afghanstan Islam Respublikaḣy --- Afhanistan --- Ăfqanıstan --- Ăfqanıstan İslam Respublikası --- Afuganisutan --- Ahyganitã --- Apganistan --- Aphganistan --- Da Afġānistān Islāmī Jumhoryat --- Democratic Republic of Afghanistan --- DRA --- Efẍanistan --- Gweriniaeth Islamaidd Affganistan --- Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan --- Islamic Republic of Afghanistan --- Islamic State of Afghanistan --- Islamikong Republika kan Apganistan --- Islamitiese Republiek van Afghanistan --- Islamska republika Afganistan --- Islamskai︠a︡ Rėspublika Afhanistan --- Isli︠a︡mska republika Afganistan --- Jamhuri-ye Islami-ye Afghanistan --- Jomhūrī-ye Eslāmī-ye Afġānestān --- Jumhūrī-i Islāmī-i Afghānistān --- Republic of Afghanistan --- República Democrática de Afganistán --- Republik Islamek Afghanistan --- Tetã Islãrehegua Ahyganitã --- Афганистан --- Афганистэн --- Афганистэн Мыслимэн Республикэ --- Афганістан --- Ислямска република Афганистан --- Ісламская Рэспубліка Афганістан --- افغانستان --- جمهورى اسلامى افغانستان --- アフガニスタン

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Recovery of the Puerto Rico economy in the aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and Maria means not only rebuilding the public and private infrastructure, supply chains, human capital, and other contributors to economic output but also reversing negative economic trends that existed and presented major challenges to growth even before the storms hit. In their report, the authors explain the history of economic development and policy in Puerto Rico and discuss the state of the prestorm economy, including key economic challenges. They use the historical data on overall economic activity (unrelated to the hurricanes) to construct a counterfactual to assess the net causal effect of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on Puerto Rico's economy. The counterfactual examines what would have happened to employment, labor, population, and tourism, as well as the government of Puerto Rico's fiscal position, had the hurricanes not occurred. Observed economic indicators following the storms are then compared to this counterfactual to estimate the real net economic consequences of the hurricanes, including overall damage from the storms and the effect of the recovery effort. The analysis provides considerable detail on the conditions in Puerto Rico before and after the 2017 hurricane season so that decisionmakers can adopt better policies in rebuilding a sustainable and healthy economic sector and, more broadly, the whole of Puerto Rico. The authors recommend a set of principles based on economic theory and provide courses of action included in the recovery plan compiled from their findings about prestorm conditions and trends and the input/observations of on-the-ground partners and stakeholders in the recovery effort.

Hurricane Irma, 2017. --- Hurricane Maria, 2017. --- Hurricane damage --- 2000-2099 --- Puerto Rico --- Puerto Rico. --- Economic conditions