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This work employs a dynamic general equilibrium model to evaluate the causes and implications of bank insolvencies. The model is applied to stylized data from several South Asian countries. It derives conclusions about policy instruments designed to alleviate the impact of insolvencies. Firms are subject to intertemporal solvency conditions, and the public withdraws deposits when borrowers default. If banks optimize by restricting credit to risky borrowers, these failures can be partially avoided. Numerical simulations conclude that the combination of compensating monetary policy and restrictive fiscal policy offers the best way of responding to a bank crisis caused by exogenous shocks.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- Macroeconomics --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- National Deficit Surplus --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Labor Economics: General --- Banking --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Commercial banks --- Bank deposits --- Distressed assets --- Government debt management --- Financial institutions --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Loans --- Labor --- Banks and banking --- Debts, Public --- Labor economics --- Mexico --- Income economics
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This paper constructs an intertemporal general equilibrium model designed to examine an economy in transition from central planning to being market oriented. A numerical algorithm is developed to obtain a solution for the model. Simulations using stylized country-specific data examine the effects of price controls during the transition period, as well as of imposing taxes on returns to investment, and on interest earned on private savings. The paper concludes that, under certain circumstances, the taxation of investment as well as of private savings may have positive effects upon consumer welfare, if price distortions are sufficiently severe.
Consumption --- Deflation --- Economics --- Financial institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Government policy --- Income economics --- Inflation --- Institutional Investors --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Stocks --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- National accounts --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Pension Funds --- Price controls --- Price Level --- Prices --- Public Finance --- Saving --- Stocks --- Wealth --- China, People's Republic of
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We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of an open economy and use it to examine issues of trade liberalization in Mexico. In particular, we consider the fiscal implications of quotas and tariffs and, accordingly, their removal. We show that, in the short run, there may be negative revenue effects from tariff liberalization, so that it may be necessary to raise domestic taxes to compensate for the tariff reduction. We also show that these results are highly sensitive to behavioral shifts in exports. Since such shifts are quite likely given the nature of the trade reform currently being undertaken, it is important that we qualify our results accordingly.
Budgeting --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Fiscal Policy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Tariffs --- Budget planning and preparation --- Exchange rates --- Imports --- Wholesale price indexes --- Taxes --- Public financial management (PFM) --- International trade --- Prices --- Tariff --- Budget --- Price indexes --- Mexico
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In this paper, we study the impact of labor market restructuring and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and banks failures are generated through increases in the growth rate of the labor force, a revaluation of the exchange rate or an increase in debt issue to finance the government deficit, as compared to a benchmark scenario in which banks remain solvent. Thus bank failures can result from what might seem to be either beneficial economic trends, or correct monetary and fiscal policies. We introduce fiscal policies that modify relative factor prices by lowering the capital tax rate and increasing the tax rate on labor. Such policies can prevent banking failures by raising the return to capital. It is shown that such fiscal policies are, in the short run, welfare reducing.
Bank failures. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Banking --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Failure of banks --- Government policy --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Business failures --- Banks and Banking --- Budgeting --- Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public finance & taxation --- Foreign direct investment --- Budget planning and preparation --- Government debt management --- Distressed institutions --- Investments, Foreign --- Banks and banking --- Budget --- Debts, Public --- Financial services industry --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper reviews briefly the controversy in the literature concerning the speed of adjustment and sequencing of reforms, and presents a model parameterized with Chinese data. The model is used to generate different policy simulations to illustrate some of the key issues in the debate on the speed and sequencing of reforms, and not to provide a basis for policy recommendations for China. The simulations highlight the importance of the criteria being used for determining speed and sequencing. The paper also underscores the limitations involved in attempting to derive conclusions from the model, given the complexity of the issues.
Budgeting --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Planning, Coordination, and Reform --- Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions --- Privatization --- Contracting Out --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Labor Economics: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public ownership --- nationalization --- Civil service & public sector --- Current account --- Labor --- Budget planning and preparation --- Public enterprises --- Economic sectors --- Balance of payments --- Public sector --- Labor economics --- Budget --- Government business enterprises --- Finance, Public --- China, People's Republic of --- Income economics --- Nationalization
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An intertemporal general equilibrium model is used to examine infrastructure effects on the Mexican national income. Production functions are estimated for the major sectors of the economy in which sectoral output depends on inputs of capital and labor, as well as the stocks of the public infrastructure. The analysis indicates that despite high estimated output elasticities with respect to public infrastructure, increased expenditure on infrastructure has rapidly decreasing benefits. Some benefits could be achieved by modest increases in capital expenditures, although at the cost of significantly higher inflation and real interest rates. The increase in real interest rates causes these benefits to be greatly reduced.
Budgeting --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- National Deficit Surplus --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Labor Economics: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Budgeting & financial management --- Government debt management --- Labor --- Budget planning and preparation --- Expenditure --- National accounts --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Saving and investment --- Debts, Public --- Labor economics --- Budget --- Expenditures, Public --- Mexico --- Income economics
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This paper examines alternative ways to prevent losses from bank insolvencies. It is widely viewed that transparency in reporting bank balance sheets is a key element in reducing such losses. It is, however, unclear just how such transparency would be achieved. Current approaches to avoiding insolvencies generally involve international enforcement mechanisms. Among these are the sovereign debt restructuring mechanism (SDRM), and, more generally, an international bankruptcy court. We develop a model that compares two alternative institutions for bank auditing. Neither of these institutions would require as much enforcement capability as an international bankruptcy court, hence they would be easier to introduce. The first of these is a system of central bank auditing of national banks. The second type of auditing is carried out by an international agency that collects risk information on banks in all countries and then provides it to depositors. Using a game-theoretic approach, we compare the informativeness of the disclosure rule in the symmetric Perfect Bayesian equilibrium in each of the two different auditing institutions. We show that the international auditor generally performs at least as well, and sometimes better than, auditing by either central banks, which, in turn, perform better than voluntary disclosure by the banks themselves. The results do not assume any informational advantages of the international auditor, nor is the international auditor somehow less "corrupt" than the central banks. Rather, the international auditor's credibility comes from the simple fact that its incentives are not distorted by a sovereignty bias that plagues the central banks.
Bank failures. --- Banks and banking, Central. --- Auditing, Internal. --- Auditing --- Internal auditing --- Banker's banks --- Banks, Central --- Central banking --- Central banks --- Banks and banking --- Failure of banks --- Business failures --- Internal control --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Public Finance --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Bankruptcy --- Liquidation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Banking --- Finance --- Management accounting & bookkeeping --- Bank solvency --- Central bank auditing --- Solvency --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Commercial banks --- Financial institutions --- Debt --- United States
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This paper examines possible ways for a developing country to finance budget deficits from domestic resources. It does so by analyzing Pakistan's National Savings Scheme (NSS). The NSS has a number of unusual attributes, and its impact upon the economy of Pakistan is not clear, but given Pakistan's chronic fiscal difficulties, the NSS is of great importance in financing the public sector deficit. We use an econometric model to analyze the relationship between the demands for NSS deposits and various other financial instruments, in particular, bank deposits, and foreign-currency deposits. We conclude that NSS and bank deposits are net substitutes, as are NSS and foreign-currency deposits. Bank deposits and foreign-currency deposits, however, seem to be neither substitutes nor complements. Also, the estimated income elasticity of the demand for bank deposits is negative, while that of foreign-currency deposits is positive, and that of NSS is not significantly different from zero. Finally, there is evidence that foreign-currency deposits are a net substitute for NSS deposits. Thus, there is some empirical evidence that foreign currency deposits have absorbed part of the demand for NSS deposits. Accordingly, the availability of foreign-currency deposits may have reduced the ability of the government to finance itself.
Banks and Banking --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Fiscal Policy --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Banking --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Bank deposits --- Government debt management --- Budget planning and preparation --- Government debt planning --- Private savings --- Financial services --- Public financial management (PFM) --- National accounts --- Banks and banking --- Debts, Public --- Budget --- Saving and investment --- Pakistan
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One objective of government investment is to develop public infrastructure which may reduce private sector costs. In a developing economy, the scope for payoffs to investments of this sort may be particularly large. A major concern related to the recent fiscal adjustment in Mexico is that it has been carried out, in part, by depleting public infrastructure stocks.We estimate the effects of public infrastructure on private sector costs in Mexico and calculate the implied optimal infrastructure stocks. Our estimates indicate that previous results suggesting a large productive role of public infrastructure capital are not robust. There is little evidence that public infrastructure plays a large role in reducing private sector costs.
Infrastructure --- Investments: Stocks --- Public Finance --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Public Goods --- Macroeconomics --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Transportation --- Stocks --- Communications in revenue administration --- Public investment spending --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Revenue administration --- Expenditure --- Saving and investment --- Revenue --- Public investments --- Mexico
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