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Book
Bank Failures and Fiscal Austerity : Policy Presecriptions for a Developing Country
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ISBN: 1462371159 1452786577 1281331422 1451897251 9786613778819 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This work employs a dynamic general equilibrium model to evaluate the causes and implications of bank insolvencies. The model is applied to stylized data from several South Asian countries. It derives conclusions about policy instruments designed to alleviate the impact of insolvencies. Firms are subject to intertemporal solvency conditions, and the public withdraws deposits when borrowers default. If banks optimize by restricting credit to risky borrowers, these failures can be partially avoided. Numerical simulations conclude that the combination of compensating monetary policy and restrictive fiscal policy offers the best way of responding to a bank crisis caused by exogenous shocks.


Book
Fiscal Policy During the Demise of Central Planning : The Transition to a Market Economy
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ISBN: 1462370136 1455294918 Year: 1990 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper constructs an intertemporal general equilibrium model designed to examine an economy in transition from central planning to being market oriented. A numerical algorithm is developed to obtain a solution for the model. Simulations using stylized country-specific data examine the effects of price controls during the transition period, as well as of imposing taxes on returns to investment, and on interest earned on private savings. The paper concludes that, under certain circumstances, the taxation of investment as well as of private savings may have positive effects upon consumer welfare, if price distortions are sufficiently severe.


Book
Tax Policy and Trade Liberalization : An Application to Mexico
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ISBN: 1462305539 1455254568 1281600970 9786613781666 145529683X Year: 1992 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of an open economy and use it to examine issues of trade liberalization in Mexico. In particular, we consider the fiscal implications of quotas and tariffs and, accordingly, their removal. We show that, in the short run, there may be negative revenue effects from tariff liberalization, so that it may be necessary to raise domestic taxes to compensate for the tariff reduction. We also show that these results are highly sensitive to behavioral shifts in exports. Since such shifts are quite likely given the nature of the trade reform currently being undertaken, it is important that we qualify our results accordingly.


Book
Can Good Events Lead to Bad Outcomes? Endogenous Banking Crises and Fiscal Policy Responses
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451865236 1462398227 1451909764 9786613827807 1452727937 1283515350 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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In this paper, we study the impact of labor market restructuring and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and banks failures are generated through increases in the growth rate of the labor force, a revaluation of the exchange rate or an increase in debt issue to finance the government deficit, as compared to a benchmark scenario in which banks remain solvent. Thus bank failures can result from what might seem to be either beneficial economic trends, or correct monetary and fiscal policies. We introduce fiscal policies that modify relative factor prices by lowering the capital tax rate and increasing the tax rate on labor. Such policies can prevent banking failures by raising the return to capital. It is shown that such fiscal policies are, in the short run, welfare reducing.


Book
“Big Bang” Versus Gradualism in Economic Reforms : An Intertemporal Analysis with an Application to China
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462398375 1452798672 1281265985 1451897901 9786613778208 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper reviews briefly the controversy in the literature concerning the speed of adjustment and sequencing of reforms, and presents a model parameterized with Chinese data. The model is used to generate different policy simulations to illustrate some of the key issues in the debate on the speed and sequencing of reforms, and not to provide a basis for policy recommendations for China. The simulations highlight the importance of the criteria being used for determining speed and sequencing. The paper also underscores the limitations involved in attempting to derive conclusions from the model, given the complexity of the issues.


Book
An Analysis of the Optimal Provision of Public Infrastructure : A Computational Model Using Mexican Data
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462329918 1455271640 1281089389 9786613774743 1455281611 Year: 1996 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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An intertemporal general equilibrium model is used to examine infrastructure effects on the Mexican national income. Production functions are estimated for the major sectors of the economy in which sectoral output depends on inputs of capital and labor, as well as the stocks of the public infrastructure. The analysis indicates that despite high estimated output elasticities with respect to public infrastructure, increased expenditure on infrastructure has rapidly decreasing benefits. Some benefits could be achieved by modest increases in capital expenditures, although at the cost of significantly higher inflation and real interest rates. The increase in real interest rates causes these benefits to be greatly reduced.


Book
International Versus Domestic Auditing of Bank Solvency
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462329675 1452784485 1282050761 9786613798213 1451905041 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines alternative ways to prevent losses from bank insolvencies. It is widely viewed that transparency in reporting bank balance sheets is a key element in reducing such losses. It is, however, unclear just how such transparency would be achieved. Current approaches to avoiding insolvencies generally involve international enforcement mechanisms. Among these are the sovereign debt restructuring mechanism (SDRM), and, more generally, an international bankruptcy court. We develop a model that compares two alternative institutions for bank auditing. Neither of these institutions would require as much enforcement capability as an international bankruptcy court, hence they would be easier to introduce. The first of these is a system of central bank auditing of national banks. The second type of auditing is carried out by an international agency that collects risk information on banks in all countries and then provides it to depositors. Using a game-theoretic approach, we compare the informativeness of the disclosure rule in the symmetric Perfect Bayesian equilibrium in each of the two different auditing institutions. We show that the international auditor generally performs at least as well, and sometimes better than, auditing by either central banks, which, in turn, perform better than voluntary disclosure by the banks themselves. The results do not assume any informational advantages of the international auditor, nor is the international auditor somehow less "corrupt" than the central banks. Rather, the international auditor's credibility comes from the simple fact that its incentives are not distorted by a sovereignty bias that plagues the central banks.


Book
Why Is It So Hard to Finance Budget Deficits? Problems of a Developing Country
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462376185 1452791619 128125844X 9786613778031 1451897677 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines possible ways for a developing country to finance budget deficits from domestic resources. It does so by analyzing Pakistan's National Savings Scheme (NSS). The NSS has a number of unusual attributes, and its impact upon the economy of Pakistan is not clear, but given Pakistan's chronic fiscal difficulties, the NSS is of great importance in financing the public sector deficit. We use an econometric model to analyze the relationship between the demands for NSS deposits and various other financial instruments, in particular, bank deposits, and foreign-currency deposits. We conclude that NSS and bank deposits are net substitutes, as are NSS and foreign-currency deposits. Bank deposits and foreign-currency deposits, however, seem to be neither substitutes nor complements. Also, the estimated income elasticity of the demand for bank deposits is negative, while that of foreign-currency deposits is positive, and that of NSS is not significantly different from zero. Finally, there is evidence that foreign-currency deposits are a net substitute for NSS deposits. Thus, there is some empirical evidence that foreign currency deposits have absorbed part of the demand for NSS deposits. Accordingly, the availability of foreign-currency deposits may have reduced the ability of the government to finance itself.


Book
Private Costs and Public Infrastructure : The Mexican Case
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462312535 1452724970 1282109510 9786613802408 1451903197 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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One objective of government investment is to develop public infrastructure which may reduce private sector costs. In a developing economy, the scope for payoffs to investments of this sort may be particularly large. A major concern related to the recent fiscal adjustment in Mexico is that it has been carried out, in part, by depleting public infrastructure stocks.We estimate the effects of public infrastructure on private sector costs in Mexico and calculate the implied optimal infrastructure stocks. Our estimates indicate that previous results suggesting a large productive role of public infrastructure capital are not robust. There is little evidence that public infrastructure plays a large role in reducing private sector costs.


Book
An analysis of repressed inflation in three transitional economies
Authors: ---
Year: 1993 Publisher: Washington, D.C. World Bank

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