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Throughout the world, the great popularity of programs to protect those who may fall into poverty stands in contrast with the weakness of policies aimed at helping individuals who are already poor to overcome long-term poverty. In the paper, an OLG model with persistent poverty and limited social mobility is used to explore some of the reasons for the different success rates of these two types of policies, as well as the gains that can be expected from these and other policies in terms of economic growth. The popularity of social insurance schemes may be due to their relative ex-ante fairness, while the reluctance of societies to support effective policies to reduce long-term poverty may be explained by the redistributive bias of these policies, especially in the short term. However, the failure to attack long-term poverty can reduce long-run growth.

Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Poverty and Homelessness --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Economic Development: Human Resources --- Human Development --- Income Distribution --- Migration --- One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Education: General --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- Labour --- income economics --- Poverty & precarity --- Education --- Public finance & taxation --- Personal income --- Human capital --- Poverty --- Social assistance spending --- Income --- Expenditures, Public --- Income economics

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When faced with a relative price shock, monetary authorities often aim to contain its second round effects on inflation while accepting first round effects. We analyze the experience of South Africa and other inflation targeters to explore whether and when this policy prescription implies changing the monetary policy stance. Inflation targeting central banks differ on how aggressively they typically react to relative price shocks, reflecting differences in resilience of underlying inflation to such shocks. An examination of individual policy decisions reveals the importance of the broader economic context in framing the responses to relative price shocks.

Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Inflation targeting --- Food prices --- Oil prices --- Monetary policy --- Banks and banking --- South Africa

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Public pension systems around the world have been criticized in recent years for some serious flaws, including the excessive burden they impose on the public finances and their depressing impact on saving rates. This study analyzes the impact of pension systems and pension reform on saving, paying particular attention to the impact of the introduction of defined-contribution plans like that of Chile. It also surveys the literature on the impact of pension regimes on saving, discusses some recent reforms, and addresses the role of private pension plans.

Capital --- National savings --- Social security law --- Defined benefit pension plans --- Old age pensions --- Saving and investment --- Pension trusts --- Finance --- 368.382 --- -Pension trusts --- pensioenen --- sociale zekerheid --- pension --- securite sociale --- epargne pension --- international --- AA* / International - Internationaal --- 368.43 --- 339.311.0 --- 330.05 --- 331.252 --- Accumulation, Capital --- Capital accumulation --- Capital formation --- Investment and saving --- Saving and thrift --- Supply-side economics --- Wealth --- Investments --- Employee pension trusts --- Pension funds --- Pension plans --- Trusts and trustees --- Employees --- OASI (Old age and survivors insurance) --- Old age and survivors insurance --- Older people --- Retirement pensions --- Survivors' benefits (Old age pensions) --- Pensions --- Benefit-based pension plans --- Defined benefit plans --- Pension plans, Defined benefit --- Particuliere ziekteverzekering --- pensioen --- pensioensparen --- internationaal --- Ouderdomsverzekering. Voorbarige dood. Weduwen en wezen. --- Sparen: algemeenheden. --- Working papers --- Defined benefit pension plans. --- Pension trusts. --- Saving and investment. --- Finance. --- 368.382 Particuliere ziekteverzekering --- Sparen: algemeenheden --- Ouderdomsverzekering. Voorbarige dood. Weduwen en wezen --- Old age pensions - Finance --- Investments: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Investment & securities --- Pension spending --- Aging --- Private savings --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- National accounts --- Population aging --- Wages --- Income --- United States --- Income economics

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In recent decades, population has been aging fast in Brazil while old age pensions and healthrelated spending have increased. As the population ages, the spending trend threaten to reach unsustainable levels absent reforms. Increasing the retirement age is key, but by itself will not provide sufficient savings to close the pension system financing gap, and reforms reducing replacement rates are necessary. In the area of health, there is scope for improving expenditure efficiency by strengthening outpatient care and regional networks, and developing clinical guidelines for cost-effective treatments and drugs. Reforms are urgent, so that they can be gradual.

Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income and Wealth: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Health: General --- Pensions --- Population & demography --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Health economics --- Pension spending --- Aging --- Health care spending --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- Health --- Population aging --- Expenditures, Public --- Brazil --- Income economics

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How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating the question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (OLS, VAR, TAR, GMM, State-Space modelling and VECM). The paper finds that since 1946 the South African government has ran a sustainable fiscal policy, by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, the paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/GDP ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.

Finance --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal stance --- Output gap --- Public debt --- Fiscal policy --- Real interest rates --- Production --- Economic theory --- Debts, Public --- Interest rates --- South Africa