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Foreign exchange rates --- Inflation (Finance) --- Venezuela --- Economic conditions. --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Rates
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This paper studies the behavior of China's exports from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export products have been taken from Chinese customs statistics to form a panel data set. The data are used to estimate export supply price elasticities, including by industry groups. The extensive product level data permits the use of panel estimation techniques in order to increase the power of the testing methodology. Aggregate quarterly export unit price indices are also constructed and thereby provide an input to future research on China's trade.
Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Commodity Markets --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Investment & securities --- Exports --- Export prices --- Exchange rates --- Price indexes --- Commodities --- International trade --- Prices --- Commercial products --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.
Inflation --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Potential output --- Output gap --- Unemployment --- Unemployment rate --- Production --- Prices --- Economic theory --- Sweden
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Ireland has had significant competitiveness gains in the 1990s on the basis of the standard manufacturing unit labor cost-based measure of the real effective exchange rate. A handful of sectors mostly dominated by multinational companies have accounted for the bulk of value added in production. Their productivity gains have greatly contributed to Ireland's exceptional growth performance in the 1990s, which has earned it the nickname of "Celtic Tiger." However, these sectors represent a disproportionately smaller share of manufacturing employment, and competitiveness in employment-intensive sectors has been much weaker. This paper thus explores Irish competitiveness from the viewpoint of risks to employment.
Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Globalization --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade and Labor Market Interactions --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Globalization: General --- Manufacturing industries --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Manufacturing --- Real effective exchange rates --- Competition --- Labor costs --- Global competitiveness --- Economic sectors --- Financial markets --- United Kingdom
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This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly after the crisis, there is evidence of permanent losses in the levels of output in all of the countries studied.
Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- International Finance: Other --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Other --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- International Financial Markets --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Crises --- Economic growth --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Consumption --- Business cycles --- Financial crises --- National accounts --- Economics --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. There is also evidence of contagion in the stock market.
Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- International Finance: Other --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Other --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- International Financial Markets --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Real effective exchange rates --- Probit models --- Stock markets --- Markov-switching models --- Econometric analysis --- Financial markets --- Econometric models --- Stock exchanges --- Indonesia
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Did real overvaluation contribute to the 1991 currency crisis in India? This paper seeks an answer by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate, using an error correction model and a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The results are affirmative and the evidence indicates that current account deficits and investor confidence also played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation. The ECM model is supported by superior out-of-sample forecast performance versus a random walk model.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Current account deficits --- Current account --- Real effective exchange rates --- Balance of payments --- India
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We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in beating a random walk in out-of-sample prediction.
Monetary policy --- Foreign exchange rates --- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Personal income --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Monetary base --- Prices --- Income --- Money supply --- United States
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All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap’ can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.
Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Financial Crises --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic growth --- Output gap --- Business cycles --- Financial crises --- Banking crises --- Production --- Potential output --- Economic theory --- Prices --- United States
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This paper investigates the determinants of sustained accelerations in goods and services exports. Strong predictors of export takeoffs include domestic and structural indicators such as lower macroeconomic uncertainty, improved quality of institutions, a depreciated exchange rate, and agricultural reforms. Lower tariffs, participation in global value chains and diversification also contribute to initiating export accelerations. The paper also finds heterogeneity, with somewhat different triggers for Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as for goods and services. Finally, despite the lack of a robust effect on output, export surges tend to be associated with lower post-acceleration unemployment and income inequality.
Latin America --- Economic conditions. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Trade: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- International economics --- Exports --- Service exports --- Export performance --- Income inequality --- Income distribution --- International trade --- National accounts --- Brazil
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