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I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.

Fiscal policy. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- International Conflicts --- Negotiations --- Sanctions --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Estimation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Estimation techniques --- Price controls --- Revenue administration --- Public expenditure review --- Revenue sharing --- Econometric analysis --- Prices --- Expenditure --- Taxes --- Econometric models --- Revenue --- Expenditures, Public --- Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of

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Using a new daily index of social unrest, we provide systematic evidence on the negative impact of social unrest on stock market performance. An average social unrest episode in an typical country causes a 1.4 percentage point drop in cumulative abnormal returns over a two-week event window. This drop is more pronounced for events that last longer and for events that happen in emerging markets. Stronger institutions, particularly better governance and more democratic systems, mitigate the adverse impact of social unrest on stock market returns.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- General Outlook and Conditions --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Structure and Scope of Government: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Stock markets --- Financial markets --- Stocks --- Financial institutions --- Income --- National accounts --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Stock exchanges --- Egypt, Arab Republic of --- Pricing --- Social conflict. --- Capital market. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics: General. --- International Economics. --- Finance: General. --- Investments: Stocks. --- General Outlook and Conditions. --- Structure and Scope of Government: General. --- Pension Funds. --- Non-bank Financial Institutions. --- Financial Instruments. --- Institutional Investors. --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution. --- Economic & financial crises & disasters. --- Economics of specific sectors. --- Finance. --- Investment & securities. --- Financial crises. --- Economic sectors. --- Stock markets. --- Financial markets. --- Stocks. --- Financial institutions. --- Income. --- National accounts. --- Currency crises. --- Informal sector. --- Economics. --- Stock exchanges. --- Social aspects. --- Egypt, Arab Republic of.

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This paper updates the Reported Social Unrest Index of Barrett et al (2020), reviewing recent developments in social unrest worldwide since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic. It shows that unrest was elevated during late 2019, coincident with widespread protests in Latin America. Unrest then fell markedly during the early stages of the pandemic as voluntary and involuntary social distancing struck. Social unrest has since returned but generally remains below levels seen in 2019.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- International Relations and International Political Economy: General --- Public Economics: Miscellaneous Issues: General --- Health Behavior --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Communicable diseases --- Lebanon

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Using a new daily index of social unrest, we provide systematic evidence on the negative impact of social unrest on stock market performance. An average social unrest episode in an typical country causes a 1.4 percentage point drop in cumulative abnormal returns over a two-week event window. This drop is more pronounced for events that last longer and for events that happen in emerging markets. Stronger institutions, particularly better governance and more democratic systems, mitigate the adverse impact of social unrest on stock market returns.

Egypt, Arab Republic of --- Pricing --- Social conflict. --- Capital market. --- Social aspects. --- Egypt, Arab Republic of. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics: General. --- International Economics. --- Finance: General. --- Investments: Stocks. --- General Outlook and Conditions. --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Structure and Scope of Government: General. --- Pension Funds. --- Non-bank Financial Institutions. --- Financial Instruments. --- Institutional Investors. --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution. --- Economic & financial crises & disasters. --- Economics of specific sectors. --- Finance. --- Investment & securities. --- Financial crises. --- Economic sectors. --- Stock markets. --- Financial markets. --- Stocks. --- Financial institutions. --- Income. --- National accounts. --- Currency crises. --- Informal sector. --- Economics. --- Stock exchanges. --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Currency crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic sectors --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial crises --- Financial institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Financial markets --- General Outlook and Conditions --- Income --- Informal sector --- Institutional Investors --- International Economics --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- National accounts --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Pension Funds --- Stock exchanges --- Stock markets --- Stocks --- Structure and Scope of Government: General

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The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016.

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