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Fiscal policy has a crucial role in lessening the impact on the most vulnerable households. Governments must balance by ensuring access to energy and food, normalizing fiscal policy after unprecedented support in 2020, and promoting green transformation.
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This paper examines the common perception that internet adoption accelerated globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. The data show little evidence of a faster expansion of access to internet (extensive margin) across all country income groups but strong evidence of acceleration in the improvement in the quality of connectivity (intensive margin). The data also support that, despite a decline in internet prices over the past decade, affordability of digital services remains a concern for low-income developing countries.
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Fiscal policy has a crucial role in lessening the impact on the most vulnerable households. Governments must balance by ensuring access to energy and food, normalizing fiscal policy after unprecedented support in 2020, and promoting green transformation.
Choose an application
Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?.
Aging --- Demographic change --- Demographic Economics: General --- Demographic transition --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Demography --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Health care spending --- Income economics --- Labor force participation --- Labor market --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labor --- Labour --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Population & demography --- Population aging --- Population and demographics --- Population --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Korea, Republic of
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Refugees from Ukraine face multiple vulnerabilities, with many requiring humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs. In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, host countries in Europe and beyond have adopted measures to support refugees, including residency rights, free movement across countries, access to labor markets and integration policies, health and education services, housing options, banking services, and social protection systems. Drawing on previous IMF work on the economic challenges of refugees, this note provides an overview of policy responses needed to provide effective support to refugees fleeing Ukraine.
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Refugees from Ukraine face multiple vulnerabilities, with many requiring humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, host countries in Europe and beyond have adopted measures to support refugees, including residency rights, free movement across countries, access to labor markets and integration policies, health and education services, housing options, banking services, and social protection systems. Drawing on previous IMF work on the economic challenges of refugees, this note provides an overview of policy responses needed to provide effective support to refugees fleeing Ukraine.
Refugee camps. --- Currency crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic sectors --- Economics of Minorities and Races --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Financial crises --- Geographic Labor Mobility --- Health, Education, and Welfare: General --- Immigrant Workers --- Informal sector --- International Migration --- Macroeconomics --- National Government Expenditures and Education --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Ukraine
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We develop a detailed model to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). We also find that if the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half, whereas raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline. Moreover, a 40 percent cost decrease occurs when varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability, to only 50 percent reliability. To conclude, broadband policy assessments should be explicit about the quantity of data and the reliability of service provided to users. Failure to do so will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Demography --- Infrastructure --- Finance: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Sustainable Development --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Demographic Economics: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Information technology industries --- Population & demography --- Technology --- general issues --- Finance --- Digitalization --- Population and demographics --- National accounts --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Financial markets --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Information technology --- Population --- Saving and investment --- Financial services industry --- Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of
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We identify key drivers of digital adoption, estimate fiscal costs to provide internet subsidies to households, and calculate social dividends from digital adoption. Using cross-country panel regressions and machine learning, we find that digital infrastructure coverage, internet price, and usability are the most statistically robust predictors of internet use in the short run. Based on estimates from a model of demand for internet, we find that demand is most price responsive in low-income developing countries and almost unresponsive in advanced economies. We estimate that moving low-income developing and emerging market economies to the levels of digital adoption in emerging and advanced economies, respectively, will require annual targeted subsidies of 1.8 and 0.05 percent of GDP, respectively. To aid with subsidy targeting, we use microdata from over 150 countries and document a digital divide by gender, socio-economic status, and demographics. Finally, we find substantial aggregate and distributional gains from digital adoption for education quality, time spent doing unpaid work, and labor force participation by gender.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Women''s Studies' --- Foreign Exchange --- Telecommunications --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Education: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Education --- Gender studies --- women & girls --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Labor force participation --- Income --- National accounts --- Women --- Gender --- Purchasing power parity --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Labor market --- Colombia
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Many countries face the challenge of raising additional tax revenues without hurting economic growth. Comprehensive, cross-country information on the revenue impact of tax policy changes can thus support informed decision-making on viable reforms. We assess the likely revenue impact of various tax policy changes based on a sample of 21 advanced and emerging market economies, using granular information from the IMF Tax Policy Reform Database v.4.0. Our findings suggest that the revenue yield of a tax policy change varies significantly depending on the tax instrument adopted (e.g., VAT or personal income tax) and the nature of the change (i.e., rate, base). For example, in our sample, base-broadening changes to personal and corporate income taxes as well as to excise and property taxes have generally a more significant and long-lasting revenue yields than rate changes. By contrast, rate changes appear to have a relatively more significant revenue impact in the case of VAT and social security contributions. We also observe an asymmetry in the revenue impact of most tax policy measures when controlling for the direction of tax changes (i.e., its significance varies depending on whether taxes are increased or decreased). While our results are based on qualitative information of tax policy changes (i.e., dummy variables), the revenue yields of rate measures are not materially different from those that would be obtained using quantitative information on the size of the change.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Corporate Taxation --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Fiscal Policy --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Corporate & business tax --- Revenue administration --- Corporate income tax --- Taxes --- Personal income tax --- Tax collection --- Value-added tax --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Revenue --- Corporations --- Income tax --- Tax administration and procedure --- Spendings tax --- United States
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We develop a detailed model to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). We also find that if the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half, whereas raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline. Moreover, a 40 percent cost decrease occurs when varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability, to only 50 percent reliability. To conclude, broadband policy assessments should be explicit about the quantity of data and the reliability of service provided to users. Failure to do so will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.
Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Demography --- Infrastructure --- Finance: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Sustainable Development --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Demographic Economics: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Information technology industries --- Population & demography --- Technology --- general issues --- Finance --- Digitalization --- Population and demographics --- National accounts --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Financial markets --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Information technology --- Population --- Saving and investment --- Financial services industry --- General issues
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