TY - BOOK ID - 85504623 TI - Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle PY - 2018 SN - 148434863X 1484348613 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Banks and Banking KW - Macroeconomics KW - Demography KW - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts KW - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects KW - Economics of the Elderly KW - Economics of the Handicapped KW - Non-labor Market Discrimination KW - Labor Economics: General KW - Population & demography KW - Finance KW - Labour KW - income economics KW - Demographic change KW - Real interest rates KW - Zero lower bound KW - Aging KW - Labor KW - Population and demographics KW - Financial services KW - Interest rates KW - Demographic transition KW - Population aging KW - Labor economics KW - United States UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:85504623 AB - As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession. ER -