TY - BOOK ID - 85503929 TI - The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model AU - Abrego, Lisandro. AU - Amado, Maria Alejandra. AU - Gursoy, Tunc. AU - Nicholls, Garth. AU - Perez-Saiz, Hector. PY - 2019 SN - 1498318800 1498314392 9781498314398 9781498318808 1498318789 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Commercial policy. KW - Foreign trade policy KW - International trade KW - International trade policy KW - Trade policy KW - Economic policy KW - International economic relations KW - Government policy KW - Exports and Imports KW - Macroeconomics KW - Taxation KW - Neoclassical Models of Trade KW - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies KW - Trade Policy KW - International Trade Organizations KW - Economic Integration KW - Trade: Forecasting and Simulation KW - Trade: General KW - Empirical Studies of Trade KW - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution KW - International economics KW - Public finance & taxation KW - Tariffs KW - Trade barriers KW - Imports KW - Trade balance KW - Income KW - Taxes KW - National accounts KW - Tariff KW - Commercial policy KW - Balance of trade KW - South Africa UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:85503929 AB - In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to eventually cover all African countries. Using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model based on Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014), we estimate the welfare effects of the AfCFTA for 45 countries in Africa. Three different model specifications—comprising both perfect competition and monopolistic competition—are used. Simulations include full elimination of import tariffs and partial but substantial reduction in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Results reveal significant potential welfare gains from trade liberalization in Africa. As intra-regional import tariffs in the continent are already low, the bulk of these gains come from lowering NTBs. Overall gains for the continent are broadly similar under the three model specifications used, with considerable variation of potential welfare gains across countries in all model structures. ER -