TY - BOOK ID - 85297409 TI - Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments : connecting the dots AU - Tecuci, Gheorghe AU - Schum, David A. AU - Marcu, Dorin AU - Boicu, Mihai PY - 2016 SN - 1316655598 1316388484 1107122600 PB - New York : Cambridge University Press, DB - UniCat KW - Intelligence service KW - Evidence. KW - Inference. KW - Reasoning KW - Argumentation KW - Ratiocination KW - Reason KW - Thought and thinking KW - Judgment (Logic) KW - Logic KW - Ampliative induction KW - Induction, Ampliative KW - Inference (Logic) KW - Proof KW - Belief and doubt KW - Faith KW - Philosophy KW - Truth KW - Counter intelligence KW - Counterespionage KW - Counterintelligence KW - Intelligence community KW - Secret police (Intelligence service) KW - Public administration KW - Research KW - Disinformation KW - Secret service KW - Methodology. KW - Data processing. UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:85297409 AB - This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and evidence; and we test the hypotheses on the basis of the evidence we are discovering. To facilitate the learning of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; assess the relevance, believability, and inferential force of evidence; and finally judge the probability of the hypotheses. ER -