TY - BOOK ID - 85290780 TI - Predicting Fiscal Crises AU - Cerovic, Svetlana. AU - Gerling, Kerstin. AU - Hodge, Andrew. AU - Medas, Paulo. PY - 2018 SN - 1484372980 1484372913 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Financial crises. KW - International economic relations. KW - Economic policy KW - Economic policy, Foreign KW - Economic relations, Foreign KW - Economics, International KW - Foreign economic policy KW - Foreign economic relations KW - Interdependence of nations KW - International economic policy KW - International economics KW - New international economic order KW - International relations KW - Economic sanctions KW - Crashes, Financial KW - Crises, Financial KW - Financial crashes KW - Financial panics KW - Panics (Finance) KW - Stock exchange crashes KW - Stock market panics KW - Crises KW - International cooperation. KW - Financial Risk Management KW - Macroeconomics KW - Public Finance KW - Production and Operations Management KW - Debt KW - Debt Management KW - Sovereign Debt KW - Fiscal Policy KW - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes KW - General Outlook and Conditions KW - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation KW - Financial Crises KW - Financing Policy KW - Financial Risk and Risk Management KW - Capital and Ownership Structure KW - Value of Firms KW - Goodwill KW - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) KW - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General KW - Macroeconomics: Production KW - Economic & financial crises & disasters KW - Economic growth KW - Public finance & taxation KW - Early warning systems KW - Financial crises KW - Cyclical indicators KW - Expenditure KW - Output gap KW - Crisis management KW - Business cycles KW - Expenditures, Public KW - Production KW - Economic theory UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:85290780 AB - This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature. ER -