TY - BOOK ID - 84542419 TI - Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets AU - Danninger, Stephan. AU - International Monetary Fund. PY - 2005 SN - 146237204X 1452773386 128206116X 9786613799135 1451905696 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Electronic books. -- local. KW - Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. KW - Tax revenue estimating -- Econometric models. KW - Budgeting KW - Macroeconomics KW - Public Finance KW - Taxation KW - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General KW - National Budget KW - Budget Systems KW - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt KW - Public finance & taxation KW - Budgeting & financial management KW - Revenue forecasting KW - Revenue administration KW - Budget planning and preparation KW - Tax administration core functions KW - Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts KW - Tax administration and procedure KW - Revenue KW - Budget KW - Economic forecasting KW - Azerbaijan, Republic of KW - Fiscal policy KW - Tax revenue estimating KW - Econometric models. UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:84542419 AB - Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possible and governments may understate revenue forecasts. A case study for Azerbaijan is presented in support of the former incentive motive. ER -