TY - BOOK ID - 84542369 TI - Short-Term Forecasting : Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead PY - 2001 SN - 146239230X 1452763356 1282107070 1451898797 9786613800428 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Econometrics KW - Macroeconomics KW - Industries: General KW - Bayesian Analysis: General KW - Time-Series Models KW - Dynamic Quantile Regressions KW - Dynamic Treatment Effect Models KW - Diffusion Processes KW - State Space Models KW - Business Fluctuations KW - Cycles KW - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation KW - Macroeconomics: Production KW - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) KW - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications KW - Economic growth KW - Econometrics & economic statistics KW - Economic Forecasting KW - Cyclical indicators KW - Industrial production KW - Vector autoregression KW - GDP forecasting KW - Production index KW - Production KW - Econometric analysis KW - National accounts KW - Business cycles KW - Industries KW - National income KW - Economic theory KW - United States UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:84542369 AB - This paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries. ER -