TY - BOOK ID - 84542331 TI - Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises : The Mexican Experience AU - Ötker, Inci. AU - Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla. PY - 1995 SN - 146230754X 1455247502 1282108492 1455211079 9786613801845 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Money and Monetary Policy KW - History of Thought: Macroeconomics KW - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions KW - Monetary Systems KW - Standards KW - Regimes KW - Government and the Monetary System KW - Payment Systems KW - Currency KW - Foreign exchange KW - Monetary economics KW - Exchange rate arrangements KW - Exchange rates KW - Crawling peg KW - Conventional peg KW - Currencies KW - Money KW - Mexico UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:84542331 AB - This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period. ER -