TY - BOOK ID - 84540505 TI - Forecasting Thailand’s Core Inflation PY - 2004 SN - 1462357024 1451985428 1281328715 1451897294 9786613778741 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Inflation (Finance) KW - Finance KW - Natural rate of unemployment KW - Forecasting. KW - Inflation KW - Macroeconomics KW - Forecasting KW - Price Level KW - Deflation KW - Forecasting and Other Model Applications KW - Economic Forecasting KW - Price indexes KW - Consumer price indexes KW - Economic forecasting KW - Import price indexes KW - Prices KW - Thailand UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:84540505 AB - This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evolution. This involves combining a short-term model, which attempts to distill the forecasting power of a variety of monthly indicators purely on goodness-of-fit criteria, with an equilibrium-correction model that pins down the convergence of core inflation to its longer-run structural determinants. The result is a promising model for forecasting Thai core inflation over horizons up to 10, 24, and 55 months, based on a root mean-squared error criterion as well as a mean absolute error criterion. ER -