TY - BOOK ID - 84538741 TI - Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs AU - Phillips, Steven. AU - Musso, Alberto. PY - 2001 SN - 1462307663 1451984456 1281601845 1451893647 9786613782533 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Exports and Imports KW - Inflation KW - Current Account Adjustment KW - Short-term Capital Movements KW - Price Level KW - Deflation KW - International economics KW - Macroeconomics KW - Capital account KW - Current account balance KW - Current account KW - Capital account balance KW - Prices KW - Balance of payments KW - Korea, Republic of UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:84538741 AB - “Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously. ER -