TY - BOOK ID - 69245412 TI - Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance AU - Prasad, Ananthakrishnan. AU - Elekdag, Selim. AU - Jeasakul, Phakawa. AU - Lafarguette, Romain. AU - Alter, Adrian. AU - Xiaochen Feng, Alan. AU - Wang, Changchun. PY - 2019 SN - 1484397010 149830141X 1498301347 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Accounting KW - Macroeconomics KW - Money and Monetary Policy KW - Real Estate KW - General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation KW - International Business Cycles KW - Monetary Growth Models KW - Price Level KW - Inflation KW - Deflation KW - Housing Supply and Markets KW - Public Administration KW - Public Sector Accounting and Audits KW - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General KW - Property & real estate KW - Financial reporting, financial statements KW - Monetary economics KW - Growth-at-risk assessment KW - Asset prices KW - Housing prices KW - Financial statements KW - Credit aggregates KW - Financial sector policy and analysis KW - Prices KW - Public financial management (PFM) KW - Money KW - Financial risk management KW - Housing KW - Finance, Public KW - Credit KW - Peru UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:69245412 AB - The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts. ER -