TY - BOOK ID - 65580878 TI - Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability PY - 2019 SN - 1513520016 1513519123 1513519867 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Macroeconomics KW - Public Finance KW - General Aggregative Models: Keynes KW - Keynesian KW - Post-Keynesian KW - Business Fluctuations KW - Cycles KW - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General KW - Fiscal Policy KW - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy KW - Stabilization KW - Treasury Policy KW - National Deficit Surplus KW - Debt KW - Debt Management KW - Sovereign Debt KW - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General KW - Public finance & taxation KW - Fiscal rules KW - Fiscal policy KW - Public debt KW - Fiscal stance KW - Expenditure KW - Debts, Public KW - Expenditures, Public KW - Belize UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:65580878 AB - This paper assesses the cyclicality and sustainability of fiscal policy in Belize and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy in Belize has been significantly procyclical and unsustainable much of the period since 1976. While the government’s recent commitment to maintain a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP until 2021 is supporting debt reduction, stochastic simulations indicate that further improvement in the primary balance is necessary to reliably bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable path. Given Belize’s history of large economic shocks, this paper proposes explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and debt sustainability. It recommends integrating such rules into a well-designed fiscal responsibility law and establishing an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency. ER -