TY - BOOK ID - 64879516 TI - Spillovers from US Government Spending Shocks : Impact on External Positions AU - Popescu, Adina. AU - Shibata, Ippei. PY - 2017 SN - 1484352408 1484320255 1484325222 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Balance of trade KW - Currency KW - Empirical Studies of Trade KW - Exchange rates KW - Expenditure KW - Expenditures, Public KW - Exports and Imports KW - Fiscal Policy KW - Fiscal policy KW - Fiscal stimulus KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Foreign exchange KW - International economics KW - International trade KW - Macroeconomics KW - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General KW - Public finance & taxation KW - Public Finance KW - Real exchange rates KW - Trade balance KW - United States UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:64879516 AB - This note analyzes the impact of preannounced government spending shocks in the United States on the real effective exchange rate and the trade balance. Using a vector autoregression framework that allows anticipated fiscal shocks to be identified using survey information, we find that preannounced spending shocks lead to a sizable real effective dollar appreciation and a worsening of both the aggregate trade balance and bilateral trade balances in a panel of partner countries. The results are robust to controlling for country-specific variables like the macroeconomic and policy conditions in the recipient countries, are generalized across regions and might have decreased during the zero-interest-lower-bound regime. ER -