TY - BOOK ID - 146593896 TI - Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets AU - Alvarez, Jorge. AU - Andaloussi, Mehdi. AU - Maggi, Chiara. AU - Sollaci, Alexandre. AU - Stuermer, Martin. AU - Topalova, Petia. PY - 2023 SN - 9798400256035 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Agricultural commodities KW - Agriculture in International Trade KW - Agriculture: General KW - Balance of trade KW - Commercial products KW - Commodities KW - Commodity exchanges KW - Commodity Markets KW - Commodity markets KW - Commodity price fluctuations KW - Currency crises KW - Deflation KW - E-Commerce KW - Economic & financial crises & disasters KW - Economic Growth of Open Economies KW - Economic Integration KW - Economics of specific sectors KW - Economics KW - Economics: General KW - Empirical Studies of Trade KW - Energy and the Macroeconomy KW - Exports and Imports KW - Farm produce KW - Finance KW - Finance: General KW - Financial markets KW - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) KW - Inflation KW - Informal sector KW - International economics KW - International Policy Coordination and Transmission KW - Investment & securities KW - Investments: Commodities KW - Macroeconomics KW - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies KW - Neoclassical Models of Trade KW - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General KW - Open Economy Macroeconomics KW - Price Level KW - Prices KW - Renewable Resources and Conservation: Issues in International Trade KW - Retail and Wholesale Trade KW - Trade: Forecasting and Simulation UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:146593896 AB - This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level. ER -