TY - BOOK ID - 138973051 TI - License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports AU - Barkema, Jelle. AU - Mircheva, Borislava. AU - Mrkaic, Mico. AU - Yang, Yuanchen. PY - 2021 SN - 1513590715 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - China, People's Republic of KW - Macroeconomics KW - Economics: General KW - International Economics KW - Econometrics KW - Intelligence (AI) & Semantics KW - Exports and Imports KW - Inflation KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Informal Economy KW - Underground Econom KW - Externalities KW - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models KW - Discrete Regressors KW - Proportions KW - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences KW - Diffusion Processes KW - Current Account Adjustment KW - Short-term Capital Movements KW - Price Level KW - Deflation KW - Economic & financial crises & disasters KW - Economics of specific sectors KW - Econometrics & economic statistics KW - Machine learning KW - International economics KW - Financial crises KW - Economic sectors KW - Spillovers KW - Financial sector policy and analysis KW - Probit models KW - Econometric analysis KW - Technology KW - Capital account KW - Balance of payments KW - Prices KW - Currency crises KW - Informal sector KW - Economics KW - International finance KW - Econometric models UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:138973051 AB - This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports. ER -