TY - THES ID - 137629465 TI - Adapting to a changing climate: potential role for intra- African agricultural trade? AU - Veirman, Karen AU - Maertens, Miet AU - KU Leuven. Faculteit Bio-ingenieurswetenschappen. Opleiding Master of Bioscience Engineering. Agro- and Ecosystems Engineering (Leuven) PY - 2019 PB - Leuven KU Leuven. Faculteit Bio-ingenieurswetenschappen DB - UniCat UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:137629465 AB - The African continent is expected to face a pronounced impact of climate change on its food production system. Food security in the region is threatened by climate change induced decline in food production. The impact of climate change varies spatially across the region, creating opportunities for some countries with an increased crop productivity while others may experience adverse effects from a decline in crop productivity. Intra-regional trade may be a possible mechanism for nations expecting a decline in crop productivity to cope with climate change induced impacts on their food production system. Increasing intra-regional trade may provide resilience of food supplies in the region without increasing its dependence on imports from other continents. This thesis investigates the potential of intra-African trade as a climate change adaptation mechanism to buffer negative impacts on crop productivity in Africa. A descriptive analysis of the historical trade flows between 2000 and 2014 for maize, millet, sorghum and wheat between and within ECOWAS and SADC was done to determine significant bilateral trade flows in the study region. Changes in crop yield by 2030 and 2050 were estimated for the climate change scenario RCP8.5 without CO2 fertilisation for the crops. A descriptive and econometric analysis of two gravity models were done to determine the effect of crop productivity and tariffs on intra-African trade. Lastly, predictions of trade flows were estimated and analysed for the expected yield changes to obtain results for the research questions. The results show that a significant difference in changes in yield is expected between ECOWAS and SADC for all four crops, as well as an expected maize yield increase in Burkina Faso and decrease in South Africa. In addition, we find that maize productivity in the exporting country significantly affects trade flows, whereas imposed tariffs do not have a significant effect on intra-African trade flows. The predicted changes in trade flows show a large significant decrease for certain scenarios of negative climate-induced changes in the exporter’s maize yield, when all other factors remain constant. Findings in this thesis indicate that inter-REC trade for maize, millet and sorghum can potentially mitigate climate-induced yield decreases in certain countries in ECOWAS and SADC. Intra-REC trade has the potential to act as an adaptation mechanism for millet within SADC and maize within ECOWAS. The results reveal that there is no potential for intra-African trade to buffer negative impacts on wheat productivity in Africa. In order to cope with a changing climate, ECOWAS and SADC will have to rely on several adaptation mechanisms. This study reveals that Intra-African trade may be a possible mechanism to buffer the climate-induced impacts for maize, millet and sorghum supply in the region. ER -