TY - BOOK ID - 137286043 TI - Where Should We Go? Internet Searches and Tourist Arrivals PY - 2020 SN - 1513529625 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Bahamas, The KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Macroeconomics KW - Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism KW - Forecasting KW - Time-Series Models KW - Dynamic Quantile Regressions KW - Dynamic Treatment Effect Models KW - Diffusion Processes KW - Forecasting and Other Model Applications KW - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications KW - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation KW - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General KW - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search KW - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions KW - Sports KW - Gambling KW - Restaurants KW - Recreation KW - Tourism KW - Currency KW - Foreign exchange KW - Hospitality, leisure & tourism industries KW - Economic Forecasting KW - Personal income KW - Real effective exchange rates KW - Economic forecasting KW - National accounts KW - Economic sectors KW - Income UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:137286043 AB - The widespread availability of internet search data is a new source of high-frequency information that can potentially improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The results indicate that the forecast model incorporating internet search data provides additional information about tourist flows over a univariate approach using the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and multivariate models with macroeconomic indicators. The Google Trends-augmented model improves predictability of tourist arrivals by about 30 percent compared to the benchmark ARIMA model and more than 20 percent compared to the model extended only with income and relative prices. ER -