TY - BOOK ID - 135366488 TI - What deters and why : applying a framework to assess deterrence of gray zone aggression AU - Mazarr, Michael J. AU - Chan, Arthur AU - Cheravitch, Joe AU - Hornung, Jeffrey W. AU - Pézard, Stéphanie AU - Arroyo Center. AU - Rand Corporation. AU - United States. PY - 2021 PB - Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation DB - UniCat KW - Deterrence (Strategy) KW - Deterrence (Strategy) KW - Evaluation. KW - Government policy KW - United States. UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:135366488 AB - In an era of rising global competition, U.S. challengers and rivals are increasingly looking to achieve competitive advantage through gray zone activities — that is, acts of aggression that remain below the threshold of outright warfare. In this report, RAND researchers identify eight common characteristics of such aggression (e.g., unfolds gradually, is not attributable) and develop a framework for assessing the health of U.S. and partner deterrence in the gray zone. They apply the framework to three cases: China's aggression against the Senkaku Islands, Russia's aggression against the Baltic states, and North Korea's aggression against South Korea. The authors conclude that U.S. and partner deterrence of gray zone activities is in a reasonably strong, though mixed, condition in each of these three contexts. Finally, the authors outline the implications of their findings for the U.S. Army. Among these implications are that maintaining a local presence and posture plays an important role in conveying likely responses to aggression, and clear statements of shared intent to respond to specific actions are critical. ER -