TY - BOOK ID - 134298616 TI - Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia AU - Blankespoor, Brian AU - Pandey, Kiran Dev AU - Wheeler, David PY - 2009 PB - Washington, D.C., The World Bank, DB - UniCat KW - Climate KW - Climate Change KW - Climate change KW - Climate forecasts KW - Climate models KW - Climate system KW - Climate variation KW - Climatic research unit KW - Cru KW - Emissions KW - Environment KW - GCM KW - Global Environment KW - Global scale KW - Global warming KW - Intergovernmental panel on climate change KW - IPCC KW - Precipitation KW - Rainfall KW - Satellites KW - Temperature KW - Weather KW - Weather stations UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:134298616 AB - This paper describes an approach to forecasting future climate at the local level using historical weather station and satellite data and future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs) that is easily understandable by policymakers and planners. It describes an approach to synthesize the myriad climate projections, often with conflicting messages, into an easily-interpreted set of graphical displays that summarizes the basic implications of the ensemble of available climate models. The method described in the paper can be applied to publicly-available data for any country and for any number of climate models. It does not depend on geographic scale and can be applied at the subnational, national, or regional level. The paper illustrates the results for future climate for Ethiopia using future climate scenarios projects by 8 global climate models. The graphical displays of nine possible future climate regimes (average temperature, precipitation and their seasonal distribution) for each grid-cell about 50km X 50 km). It also provides the probability associated with each of the nine-climate regimes. ER -