TY - BOOK ID - 134274688 TI - OPEC and the Oil Market AU - Pescatori, Andrea. AU - Nazer, Yousef. PY - 2022 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Macroeconomics KW - Economics: General KW - Investments: Energy KW - Industries: Energy KW - Economic Development: Agriculture KW - Natural Resources KW - Energy KW - Environment KW - Other Primary Products KW - Energy: Demand and Supply KW - Prices KW - Energy: General KW - Macroeconomics: Consumption KW - Saving KW - Wealth KW - Commodity Markets KW - Macroeconomics: Production KW - Economic & financial crises & disasters KW - Economics of specific sectors KW - Investment & securities KW - Petroleum, oil & gas industries KW - Economic Forecasting KW - Oil prices KW - Oil KW - Commodities KW - Oil consumption KW - National accounts KW - Commodity price fluctuations KW - Oil production KW - Production KW - Currency crises KW - Informal sector KW - Economics KW - Petroleum industry and trade KW - Consumption KW - National income KW - Saudi Arabia UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:134274688 AB - This paper studies the historical importance of OPEC for oil price fluctuations. An event-study approach is used to identify the effects of OPEC announcements on oil price fluctuations. Results show that price volatility is higher than typical around OPEC meetings. Also, members' compliance, a proxy for credibility, has strongly fluctuated over time. An ordered multinomial logit framework identifies the main factors that explain OPEC's decisions to cut, maintain, or boost members' oil production and is able to successfully predict OPEC meeting outcomes 66 percent of the time, between 1989 and 2019. Cyclical oil price fluctuations (as opposed to persistent shifts in levels) drive OPEC’s decisions, suggesting that OPEC's objective is to stabilize the oil price rather than countering fundamental shifts in demand and supply. Low OPEC’s market share reduces the probability of a production cut. Finally, the transparency of OPEC's statements has modestly improved between 2002 and 2019. ER -