TY - BOOK ID - 133924057 TI - Trading with Friends in Uncertain Times AU - Jakubik, Adam. AU - Ruta, Michele. PY - 2023 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Macroeconomics KW - Economics: General KW - Exports and Imports KW - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General KW - Neoclassical Models of Trade KW - Trade Policy KW - International Trade Organizations KW - International Relations and International Political Economy: General KW - Empirical Studies of Trade KW - Economic & financial crises & disasters KW - Economics of specific sectors KW - International economics KW - Trade policy KW - International trade KW - Trade balance KW - Plurilateral trade KW - Trade tensions KW - Trade barriers KW - Currency crises KW - Informal sector KW - Economics KW - Commercial policy KW - Balance of trade UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:133924057 AB - In this paper we seek to answer the question of how the patterns of bilateral trade are altered by rising trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Specifically, we investigate whether geopolitical alignments between country pairs determine how bilateral trade flows react during periods of greater uncertainty. Using a structural gravity framework augmented with a text-based TPU index and a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting records, we find a significant negative effect of the latter when TPU is elevated, indicating a shift to trading among “friends” in uncertain times. ER -