TY - BOOK ID - 133781443 TI - Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows AU - Gelos, Gaston. AU - Gornicka, Lucyna. AU - Koepke, Robin. AU - Sahay, Ratna. AU - Sgherri, Silvia. PY - 2019 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Exports and Imports KW - Finance: General KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Current Account Adjustment KW - Short-term Capital Movements KW - Monetary Policy KW - Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation KW - International Investment KW - Long-term Capital Movements KW - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) KW - International economics KW - Currency KW - Foreign exchange KW - Finance KW - Capital flows KW - Exchange rate arrangements KW - Emerging and frontier financial markets KW - Capital account KW - Balance of payments KW - Capital flow management KW - Financial markets KW - Capital movements KW - Financial services industry KW - United States UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:133781443 AB - The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows. ER -