TY - BOOK ID - 133368231 TI - Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises? AU - Chen, Sally. AU - Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna. PY - 2021 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Macroeconomics KW - Economics: General KW - International Economics KW - Banks and Banking KW - Money and Monetary Policy KW - Real Estate KW - Financial Risk Management KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Informal Economy KW - Underground Econom KW - Business Fluctuations KW - Cycles KW - Financial Crises KW - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General KW - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets KW - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) KW - Economic & financial crises & disasters KW - Economics of specific sectors KW - Monetary economics KW - Property & real estate KW - Economic growth KW - Financial cycles KW - Financial sector policy and analysis KW - Banking crises KW - Financial crises KW - Credit KW - Money KW - Land prices KW - Prices KW - Business cycles KW - Currency crises KW - Informal sector KW - Economics KW - Housing KW - Crisis management KW - United States UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:133368231 AB - Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers. ER -