TY - BOOK ID - 11954905 TI - The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting PY - 2006 SN - 1451864353 1462375022 1451987102 9786613822376 1451983301 1282558242 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Electronic books. -- local. KW - Inflation (Finance) -- Forecasting. KW - Monetary policy. KW - Finance KW - Business & Economics KW - Money KW - Inflation (Finance) KW - Forecasting. KW - Monetary management KW - Economic policy KW - Currency boards KW - Money supply KW - Natural rate of unemployment KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Inflation KW - Macroeconomics KW - Forecasting KW - Price Level KW - Deflation KW - Forecasting and Other Model Applications KW - Currency KW - Foreign exchange KW - Economic Forecasting KW - Consumer prices KW - Exchange rates KW - Consumer price indexes KW - Economic forecasting KW - Prices KW - Price indexes KW - Kyrgyz Republic UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:11954905 AB - Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices are pronounced. In an application of the framework, the paper characterizes and investigates the stability of the seasonal pattern of consumer prices in the Kyrgyz Republic and estimates optimal money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad specifications of an augmented error-correction model-with and without seasonal components. Findings from the paper confirm empirical superiority (in terms of information content and contributions to policymaking) of augmented error-correction models of inflation over single-equation, Box-Jenkins-type general autoregressive seasonal models. Simulations of the estimated errorcorrection models yield optimal monetary policy paths for achieving inflation targets and demonstrate the empirical significance of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting. ER -