TY - BOOK ID - 11946488 TI - The spillover effects of a downturn in China's real estate investment AU - Ahuja, Ashvin AU - Myrvoda, Alla AU - International Monetary Fund. PY - 2012 VL - WP/12/266 SN - 1475549008 1475573537 1475560664 1283866935 1475575157 9781475560664 9781475575156 9781475549003 PB - Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund, Asia and Pacific Dept. DB - UniCat KW - Business & Economics KW - Real Estate, Housing & Land Use KW - Real estate investment KW - Financial crises KW - Crashes, Financial KW - Crises, Financial KW - Financial crashes KW - Financial panics KW - Panics (Finance) KW - Stock exchange crashes KW - Stock market panics KW - Investment in real estate KW - Real property investment KW - Crises KW - Investments KW - Land speculation KW - Real estate business KW - Real property KW - Prices KW - China KW - Commerce. KW - E-books KW - Cadastral surveys KW - Catastral surveys KW - Freehold KW - Limitations (Law) KW - Property, Real KW - Real estate KW - Real estate law KW - Realty KW - Property KW - Rent KW - Law and legislation KW - Exports and Imports KW - Macroeconomics KW - Industries: General KW - Investment KW - Capital KW - Intangible Capital KW - Capacity KW - Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts KW - Comparative Studies of Countries KW - Trade: General KW - Commodity Markets KW - Metals and Metal Products KW - Cement KW - Glass KW - Ceramics KW - Macroeconomics: Production KW - International economics KW - Commodity prices KW - Exports KW - Imports KW - Metal prices KW - Industrial production KW - International trade KW - Production KW - Metals KW - Industries KW - China, People's Republic of UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:11946488 AB - Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector’s extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in China. As a result, the impact on economic activity of a collapse in real estate investment in China—though a low-probability event—would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China’s trading partners. Using a two-region factor-augmented vector autoregression model that allows for interaction between China and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1 percent off China’s real GDP within the first year, with negative spillover impacts to China’s G20 trading partners that would cause global output to decline by roughly 0.05 percent from baseline. Japan, Korea, and Germany would be among the hardest hit. In that event, commodity prices, especially metal prices, could fall by as much as 0.8–2.2 percent below baseline one year after the shock. ER -