TY - BOOK ID - 11273913 TI - Common factors in Latin America's business cycles AU - Aiolfi, Marco. AU - Catao, Luis. AU - Timmermann, Allan. AU - International Monetary Fund. PY - 2006 SN - 1451863098 146239017X 1451908458 9786613821218 1452798583 1282448021 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., DB - UniCat KW - Business cycles -- Latin America -- Econometric models. KW - Business forescasting -- Latin America. KW - Electronic books. -- local. KW - Business & Economics KW - Economic Theory KW - Business cycles KW - Business forescasting KW - Econometric models. KW - Economic cycles KW - Economic fluctuations KW - Business forecasting KW - Cycles KW - Business KW - Business forecasts KW - Forecasting, Business KW - Economic forecasting KW - Forecasting KW - Econometrics KW - Exports and Imports KW - Macroeconomics KW - Public Finance KW - Business Fluctuations KW - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics KW - Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative KW - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) KW - Classification Methods KW - Cluster Analysis KW - Principal Components KW - Factor Models KW - Empirical Studies of Trade KW - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General KW - Economic growth KW - Econometrics & economic statistics KW - International economics KW - Public finance & taxation KW - Factor models KW - Terms of trade KW - Economic recession KW - Expenditure KW - Econometric analysis KW - International trade KW - Econometric models KW - Economic policy KW - nternational cooperation KW - Recessions KW - Expenditures, Public KW - Mexico UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:11273913 AB - This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing. ER -